What Polls Show About Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden 1 Week After NY Conviction

The race to the White House remains tight between former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, and President Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent, one week after Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts by a New York jury, according to the polls.

It has been a tight presidential race as Trump and Biden will likely battle in a rematch of 2020 in five months. One key talking point among a bipartisan bloc of voters against Trump has been his legal woes. The former president was criminally indicted four times, with one conviction at the moment, and has also lost two civil defamation cases and one civil fraud case. He pleaded not guilty in all four indictments and filed appeals in his civil case defeats.

On May 30, Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to hush money paid to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels shortly before the 2016 presidential election. Daniels alleges she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies. The ex-president has maintained his innocence, claiming the case was politically motivated against him. His legal team intends to appeal the verdict. Trump has leveled that identical claim regarding all of his other cases.

While Trump suffered some blows in public opinion in the 48 hours after his guilty verdict, his overall support has not wavered for the most part.

According to an Emerson College Polling national survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, 45.6 percent of registered voters said they would vote for Trump, while 45 percent chose Biden in a head-to-head matchup. Of the 9.4 percent that remain undecided, 5.3 percent said they are leaning toward Biden, while 4.1 percent picked Trump. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and has a credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A poll by The Economist/YouGov performed from Sunday to Tuesday found that support for Biden and Trump was tied (42 percent) among 1,565 registered voters when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West were added to the mix. The poll also had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In a national poll by Morning Consult conducted from Friday to Sunday, Trump held a 1-point lead over Biden (44 percent to 43 percent). The poll surveyed 10,404 registered voters and had an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Newsweek reached out to Trump and Biden’s campaigns via email for comment.

It appears that most voters already made up their minds on Trump’s criminal case before he was convicted. According to the The Economist/YouGov poll, 92 percent of registered voters said that his guilty verdict did not cause them to reconsider their vote in the coming election, while 8 percent said that Trump’s conviction matters.

A recontact study by The New York Times and Siena College on Monday and Tuesday found that Trump lost 1 point and Biden gained 1 point after the verdict. In the recent poll, 47 percent said they’d vote for Trump and 46 percent chose Biden. In the Times/Siena polls conducted from April 7 to May 9, Trump had 48 percent of voter support while Biden garnered 45 percent.

In the poll from Monday and Tuesday, 1,897 registered voters were surveyed. The 5,156 registered voters who participated in the polls from April to May were selected for inclusion in the recontact study. It is impossible to calculate a conventional margin of error for the recontact study, according to the Times.