Vance Unlikely to Upend Race, but Beard Could Be Factor, Historians Say

JD Vance isn’t likely to significantly impact the race for the White House—although his full beard could become a factor, presidential historians said.

Vance, 39, was tapped Monday by former President Donald Trump as his running mate, but experts told Newsweek there’s “absolutely no evidence” the addition of the junior senator from Ohio to the Republican ticket will drastically alter the 2024 presidential election.

“There is no historical evidence that vice presidential nominations influence the outcome, at least in many decades,” said Allen Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University who has predicted every White House winner since 1984.

Lichtman predicts Vance won’t move the needle for Trump much like how once unpopular picks by George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton didn’t torpedo their eventual victories in November.

“When [Bush] picked a lightly regarded Dan Quayle, the instant pundits were saying, ‘oh my God, this is going to sink his campaign,’ and of course he went on to win big against Michael Dukakis,” Lichtman told Newsweek. “When Bill Clinton picked Al Gore it was: ‘Ah, what a terrible pick, another Bubba, you know, a neighboring state, he’s not going to help him at all.’ And of course, Clinton achieved a great upset of defeating a sitting president: George H.W. Bush.”

Vance also runs counter to the conventional political strategy of selecting a running mate who could generate new electoral votes in November, Lichtman said. Ohio has voted Republican in the last two elections.

“Even if you were thinking about picking someone who is politically helpful, at least the methodology would be to pick up someone from a key swing state,” Lichtman said. “[Trump] didn’t do that.”

Just 12 percent of U.S. adults said Trump’s selection of Vance was his “best possible” pick, according to a YouGov survey conducted Monday. Thirty-seven percent said they weren’t sure, compared to 9 percent who deemed Vance the “worst possible” choice.

Another YouGov survey conducted Monday also found Vance to be a relative unknown on the national stage—with 43 percent of respondents indicating they’re unsure of their opinion of a senator whose political rise followed his 2016 bestseller, Hillbilly Elegy.

Overall, 28 percent of those polled have a positive opinion of Vance, putting him 44^th among Republicans—just below former Texas governor and White House hopeful Rick Perry, according to YouGov data.

Thomas Whalen, a presidential historian and associate professor of social sciences at Boston University, characterized Vance as an “outside of the box” selection for Trump

“He’s doubling down on his base—on his MAGA, kind of blue-collar, aggrieved white people base,” Whalen told Newsweek of Trump. “But in the bigger picture, I think it’s a missed opportunity because when you’re running for president, you want to expand your existing base of supporters.”

Whalen suggested former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who was Trump’s final GOP primary challenger, would’ve been a savvier selection.

“A lot of moderate Republicans that Nikki Haley represents, not to mention moderate Republican women who favor women’s reproductive rights, have a lot of questions about Donald Trump,” Whalen said. “I think it’s a swing and a miss.”

The ‘Beard Barrier’

Whalen acknowledged one factor that might work in Vance’s favor is the so-called “beard barrier,” referring to the conventionally clean-shaven faces of presidents and vice presidents. If elected, Vance would be the first VP with a beard since Republican Schuyler Colfax (1869-1873) and the first VP with facial hair since Republican Charles Curtis (1929-1933) sported a mustache.

“Well, it matters, at least in modern political history,” Whalen said. “Harry Truman had a field day against Thomas Dewey in 1948, and remember that was a year Republicans were supposed to establish a red wave as well.”

Presidents with facial hair

Dewey, the last major presidential candidate on a major ticket with facial hair, ran for the White House in 1944 and 1948, but lost both elections.

The most recent commander-in-chief with an unshaven look was Republican William Howard Taft (1909-1913), who wore a mustache, Whalen noted.

“We’ve been pretty clean-shaven,” he said. “And remember, on the Republican right – everyone with short hair and clean shaven—it’s always been kind of a cultural badge for conservatives. So, this has cultural resonance here and I’m not sure if he’ll keep that facial hair. It’ll be interesting to see.”

Larry Cook, an author and presidential historian, believes Vance’s beard could be an asset that won’t be going away anytime soon.

“Beards are kind of in, beards are popular again,” Cook told Newsweek. “And it gives people something else to talk about. That’s helpful. If somebody’s talking about their beard, they might talk about Trump and Vance. I think it can only help him if people are talking about it one way or another.”

Lichtman, meanwhile, told Newsweek he expects to make his 2024 presidential election prediction after the Democratic National Convention in August while downplaying any impact Vance’s beard could potentially have.

“I don’t want to stretch and make pronouncements about things that are not central,” Lichtman said. “The whole point of my keys to the White House is to keep your eye on the big picture, ignore the day-to-day, don’t pay attention to the polls and look at the big picture, which is the strength and performance of the White House party.”