Trump Gets Edge in Key Arizona County as Democrats Lose 15% of Their Voters

Former President Donald Trump has an edge in Arizona’s 2024 election, as Democrats in Maricopa County have seen a sharp 15 percent decline in voter registration since the 2020 election.

The drop in Democratic voters, combined with steady Republican gains, has given Trump and the GOP a 21 percent advantage in the state’s most populous and politically influential county. This increase in the GOP’s margin could be pivotal in determining the outcome of Arizona, a key battleground state that helped decide the 2020 election​.

A 15 percent drop in Maricopa County voter registration is a setback for the Democratic party, which counted on the county to help Biden win in 2020. Back then, Maricopa had 814,000 registered Democrats compared to 915,000 Republicans, giving Republicans an 11 percent lead. By July 2024, registered Democrats fell to 692,000 and Republicans dropped to 851,000.

In Maricopa County, Trump and Vice President Harris are tied among registered voters, according to a Marist poll.

The decline in Democratic registration has coincided with an overall voter shift in Arizona. In the 2020 election, Biden won Arizona by just 0.3 percentage points, largely due to his slim victory in Maricopa County. But with Republicans now outpacing Democrats in voter registration by a substantial margin, Trump is in a much stronger position heading into 2024.

Statewide, the number of registered Democrats has fallen from 1.38 million in 2020 to 1.19 million in 2024, while Republicans have maintained their lead despite dropping from 1.5 registered voters in 2020 to 1.45 million voters as of this year​.

Trump has a narrow 1 point lead in Arizona over Vice President Kamala Harris with likely voters, according to a recent Marist poll. The gap widens slightly among registered voters, with Trump leading Harris by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent.

Harris is struggling to gain traction with Latino voters, a key demographic that has traditionally leaned Democratic. She’s underperforming Biden’s 2020 support, and is trailing Trump by three points in Arizona. Biden carried Latinos by 24 points in 2020.

The Arizona results came as polls show Trump has an edge over Harris in many of the Sun Belt states.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, the Republican is currently 0.6 points ahead in North Carolina, 1.3 points ahead in Georgia, and 1.1 points ahead in Arizona, and is projected to win in all three states. The two candidates are also tied in Nevada, according to the polling aggregator, although the Democrats are projected to win.

Pollster Nate Silver’s forecast also shows that Trump is ahead by between 0.6 and 1.3 points in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris leads in Nevada by 1.1 points.

One wild card in the 2024 election will be the large number of unaffiliated voters in Arizona. More than 800,000 voters in Maricopa County do not align with either major political party, and this group could play a decisive role in determining the state’s outcome. In 2020, many independents swung in favor of Biden, but it remains unclear whether that trend will continue in 2024.