‘Rare’ Warning Issued in Florida for First Time in 2 Years

National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists have issued a rare high-risk forecast for the first time in two years for excessive rainfall in South Florida that continues to pummel the region.

A plume of moisture from the Caribbean arrived this week and it has slowly been working its way across the state, bringing downpours that cause life-threatening flooding. Meteorologists said they expected the heaviest rains to occur from Wednesday to Friday. Downpours continued on Thursday, prompting the NWS Weather Prediction Center to issue a high-risk forecast for the southern part of the state.

“A HIGH RISK of Excessive Rainfall is now in effect across parts of South Florida (including the Miami metro region) as additional rounds of heavy rain are likely today over very sensitive locations still recovering from yesterday’s flooding. Stay weather aware!” the NWS posted on X, formerly Twitter.

It is the first time the NWS Weather Prediction Center has issued a high-risk forecast for South Florida since June 2022, when Tropical Storm Alex brought roughly 15 inches of rain to the Hollywood area. Several reports have been published on social media speculating that the last time the NWS issued a high-risk forecast for the region was during Hurricane Ian in September 2022, but NWS Lead Forecaster Bob Oravec told Newsweek that that warning was issued for Central Florida, not South Florida.

“Typically we reserve the high risk for really important events that can have a lot of impact,” Oravec said, adding that 24 to 48 hours’ worth of heavy rainfall across southern Florida have made the area susceptible to severe flooding.

More than 10 inches of rain has already fallen in many places, with some areas receiving closer to 20. Oravec expects another 2 to 5 inches through Thursday, with locally higher amounts.

The map published with the high-risk forecast shows that it spans the width of Florida, with Naples and Miami both included.

“A *HIGH* Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4 risk) has been issued for the I-75 Corridor. This means that widespread flash flooding is expected. *Locally catastrophic flash flooding is possible.*,” the NWS office in Miami posted on X.

South Florida cities particularly affected by the deluge include Fort Myers, Sarasota and Miami. Sarasota received more rain in 24 hours than it did during a five-day period during Hurricane Ian.

More rain is expected, NWS meteorologists warned. Oravec said Thursday will likely be the last day for widespread heavy rain, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.