Pete Hegseth’s Chance of Getting Confirmed, Betting Odds Show

Fox News host Pete Hegseth appears to be a firm favorite for confirmation by the Senate after being announced as President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of Defense, according to online betting platform Polymarket.

Trump announced his nomination of Hegseth, who served as a National Guard officer before becoming a pundit, to lead the military in a post to Truth Social on Tuesday night. The president-elect praised Hegseth as “tough, smart and a true believer in America First.”

Hegseth’s nomination immediately sparked backlash. Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Association founder Paul Rieckhoff, in a post to X, formerly Twitter, called him “undoubtedly the least qualified nominee for SecDef in American history” and “the most overtly political” nominee.

Despite Republicans having a 53-to-47-seat Senate majority in January, some have also expressed doubts that Hegseth will pass confirmation. Hegseth would replace current Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, a retired four-star Army general.

Regardless of any doubts, Hegseth’s chances for Senate confirmation appear bright on Polymarket, which was funded in part by early Trump backer Peter Thiel. As of Thursday evening, betting odds showed the Fox News host with an 82 percent chance of being confirmed.

Hegseth’s odds briefly dipped below 50 percent on Wednesday night, shortly after Trump announced now-former Congressman Matt Gaetz as his pick for U.S. attorney general. At 10:15 p.m., Hegseth was given a 48 percent chance of confirmation, although the odds shot up to 80 percent moments later.

Newsweek reached out to Trump’s office via email for comment on Thursday evening.

An incoming president’s cabinet picks rarely fail Senate confirmation, which requires only a simple majority vote, although controversial nominees are often subjected to intense confirmation hearings.

Trump’s picks so far include Hegseth, Gaetz and former Representative Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence. All the nominees will likely be approved unless at least four Republican senators risk Trump’s wrath by voting against them.

While no Senate Republicans have said they intend to reject Hegseth’s confirmation, several GOP senators expressed shock after learning of Trump’s nomination on Tuesday.

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska responded to Hegseth’s nomination by saying “wow” and pointing out he “wasn’t on any list of who’s under consideration,” according to an X post from Punchbowl News senior congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio.

Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana responded to the news by asking, “who?” according to an X post from NBC’s Frank Thorp V. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina reportedly called Trump’s pick “interesting.”

Hegseth’s nomination also prompted the reemergence of a Fox News video clip on social media showing him saying in 2019 that he had not washed his hands in 10 years.

The potential future defense secretary expressed doubts about the well-established germ theory of disease by claiming that “germs are not a real thing” because he “can’t see them.” He later insisted that he was joking.