Optimism and uncertainty as Middle East awaits Trump’s return

As leaders of dozens of Arab and Islamic nations gather in the Saudi capital for a summit, there is widespread speculation about what a second Trump presidency will mean for the region.

In sharp contrast to the fears voiced in Europe about Donald Trump’s famous unpredictability, Gulf Arab countries tend to view him as a force for stability.

Writing in the officially approved Arab News opinion column, the prominent UAE business leader Khalaf al-Habtoor says: “In a Middle East where security is paramount, Trump’s focus on strengthening alliances and curbing extremist forces offers a way forward.”

Here in Saudi Arabia, Trump is viewed much more favourably than Joe Biden.

Trump chose Riyadh for his first overseas trip as President in 2017, an idea reportedly brokered by Rupert Murdoch.

Through his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Trump enjoys warm relations with the de facto Saudi ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known by his initials, MBS. The crown prince has never forgiven or forgotten Biden saying that Saudi Arabia needed to be made a pariah for its attitude to human rights.

Trump’s record in office is a mixed one when it comes to the Middle East.

On the one hand he pleased Israel and upset the Arab world by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital as well as Israel’s annexation of the occupied Golan Heights. But he also secured the Abraham Accords in 2020 which saw the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco establish full diplomatic relations with Israel and Sudan agree to do so.

Trump was, and is, hawkish on Iran.

In 2018, he pulled the US out of the Iran nuclear deal, the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Calling it “the worst deal in history”, he shared the views of many governments in the region that the deal, aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, failed to tackle Iran’s ballistic missile programme while enriching the Revolutionary Guards with money then used to fund proxy militias around the region.

In 2020, to Iran’s fury but to the satisfaction of many in the Gulf Arab states, Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force.

But today’s Middle East is not the same as the one when Trump left the White House.

Israel is at war with Hamas and Hezbollah, and exchanged blows with both the Houthis in Yemen and their backers in Iran.

Under the Biden administration US influence in the region is seen to have waned with a White House largely ineffective at restraining its close ally, Israel, as it wages war in Gaza and Lebanon.

Trump’s return to the White House is thought likely to give Israel a freer hand to strike targets in Iran – like oil and nuclear facilities – that the Biden administration said were off limits.

“His staunch support for Israel and aggressive stance towards Iran’s destabilising efforts made him a key ally in the region, and his return to power is expected to intensify efforts to limit Iran’s influence,” former Israeli intelligence officer Joshua Steinrich says.

But something else has changed in the region.

Brokered by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to put aside their differences, ending seven years of hostility, characterised most visibly by the war in Yemen where the Saudi air force bombed Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

On Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s military chief flew to Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart, with both countries now talking about deepening their co-operation on defence and security.

Ever since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab neighbours in the region have viewed Iran as a major threat to their security. But the surprise 2019 drone strike on Saudi oil facilities, attributed to Iran-backed militants in Iraq, was an uncomfortable reminder to the Gulf Arab states as to just how vulnerable they were to attack by Iran.

So today, with an Arab and Islamic summit calling for an end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, there is both optimism and a degree of uncertainty about what a second Trump presidency will mean for the Middle East.