New Polls Show Kamala Harris’ Chances of Winning Michigan

The battle for Michigan remains extremely close between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, although a handful of polls in recent weeks have shown positive signs for Democrats.

The Great Lakes State is among a handful of contests that could tip results of the 2024 presidential election next month. Four years ago, President Joe Biden flipped the state for Democrats and defeated Trump by 2.8 percentage points, a much closer gap than most polls had predicted. In 2016, Trump beat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by just 0.3 percent, securing Michigan and its 16 electoral votes. (The state has 15 votes for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections due to shifts in the 2020 Census.)

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump in Michigan by just 0.4 percent on average, meaning the race is essentially. RealClearPolling, however, has Trump in the lead by 0.2 points on average across statewide polls. Most electoral forecasts put Michigan in the “toss-up” category.

Harris did receive positive news from a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this week that was conducted from October 17 to October 21. The poll found the vice president leading by 3 points (49 percent to 46 percent) among likely voters. The survey’s margin of error is 2.9 percent, roughly the same as the gap between the two candidates.

A poll by Morning Consult and Bloomberg released this week conducted from October 16 to October 20 also found Harris leading 49 percent to 46 percent based on responses of 705 likely voters in Michigan. The survey included third-party candidates such as Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who combined earned 3 percent of voters’ support.

Among the 756 registered voters sampled by Morning Consult/Bloomberg, Harris’ lead dropped slightly (47 percent to 45 percent). That survey also included Oliver and Stein. Some analysts have raised concerns that Stein’s candidacy could hurt Harris in states like Michigan, which has a large Arab American community. Stein has pulled support from some Democratic voters who do not agree with the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel.

Other recent surveys have found the race between Harris and Trump neck-and-neck. In a poll released by Redfield & Wilton Strategies and The Telegraph on Friday, the candidates were tied at 47 percent among 1,115 likely voters surveyed from October 20 to October 22.

The same results occurred in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll earlier in the month, with Harris and Trump tied at 47 percent in a survey from October 16 to October 18.

A poll by Trafalgar Group, a conservative pollster, found Trump ahead in Michigan by 2 points, based on results of 1,090 likely voters surveyed from October 17 to October 20.

When reached for comment on the state of the race in Michigan, Trump’s campaign told Newsweek earlier this week via email, “Even after the Democrats have spent over $200 million trying to redefine Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground because his message is resonating with voters across the country.”

Newsweek has also reached out to Harris’ campaign via email for comment.

Harris and Trump will make stops in Michigan this weekend. Early voting in the state officially opens on Saturday, although a handful of local jurisdictions have already unfurled their polling booths.

Trump will be in Traverse City on Friday night before heading to Novi, a northwest suburb of Detroit, on Saturday. Harris will be in Kalamazoo on Saturday afternoon with former first lady Michelle Obama. The vice president and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, will also hold a rally in Ann Arbor on Monday, where singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers will give a performance, the Harris campaign said on Friday.