Overall, he averaged 8.1 assists per game, and, more importantly, he averaged 15.8 potential assists per game. That would have given him the fourth-most potential assists per game last year, on average.
Now to tonight’s matchup: Last year, the Jazz allowed the most assists to point guards in the entire NBA, and they were also listed as the best matchup for point guard assists props, per Props.Cash.
The Jazz are very aggressive when sending help to guards driving to the hoop, which led them to allowing a ton of points to pick-and-roll roll men, and a lot of catch-and-shoot opportunities as well. Both of these types of made shots are an assisted play.
Last year, the Jazz allowed the fifth-fewest points per game via drives and were middle-of-the-pack in points per game allowed to pick-and-roll ball handlers.
That said, they allowed the fifth-most points per game specifically to the roll man in the pick and roll, and they allowed the fourth-most catch and shoot 3-point attempts as well.
Another point in favor of this play is the addition of Zach Edey for the Grizzlies, which gives Morant a great roll partner in the PNR. Edey’s points are also a good play if you are looking for an honorable mention, but the best play is on Morant’s assists.
Ja Morant 8+ assists (-130): 1 Unit
Tyrese Maxey 4+ Made 3’s (+100) DraftKings
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Bucks were a matchup that we targeted all last year with opposing point guard’s 3-point props. This year, with the same head coach in Doc Rivers, who plays the same schemes, and with Brook Lopez still the starting center, we expect similar outcomes.
Last year, the Bucks allowed the second-most pull up 3-point attempts in the NBA at 11.3 per game. They were one of only two teams that allowed more than 11 per game, along with the Celtics, which is why both of these teams are such good matchups for point guard 3-point props.
While Maxey still has some work to go as a playmaker, he has turned himself into a very good pick-and-roll ball handler and pull-up shooter.
Last season, Maxey averaged the ninth-most above-the-break 3-point attempts in the NBA and the 10th-most pull-up 3PA.
Maxey also ran the eighth-most pick-and-rolls per game, and he scored the tenth-most points per game via the pick-and-roll.
The Bucks, meanwhile, allowed the second-most points per game to pick-and-roll ball handlers last year.
Maxey’s points could be a play, but because he is not a player who pulls up from the mid-range specifically, it makes more sense to ride with the 3-point props for Maxey due to his shot profile.
There are also no concerns with Joel Embiid off the court, as that just leaves higher usage for Maxey — less catch-and-shoot opportunities, but more pick-and-roll touches, so we are good there.
Tyrese Maxey 4+ made 3’s (+100): 1 Unit
K. Caldwell-Pope 3+ Made 3’s (+250) DK
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Catch-and-shoot and corner 3-point specialists were effective against the Heat last year, and that is something that should continue this year as the Heat still have Erik Spoelstra as their head coach.
The Heat’s defensive philosophy is to not let themselves get beat in the paint, which is why they allowed among the fewest points per game to centers and points in the paint last year.
This approach led to them allowing the fourth-most corner 3’s last year, the sixth-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, and the second-most points via the spot-up (stationary).
The Magic desperately needed a shooter that can shoot in these areas, which KCP can do. The Magic took the 10th-fewest corner 3s last year, and they had the ninth-fewest catch-and-shoot 3PAs.
They were a light shooting team in general, with nobody in their starting lineup last year who could really be considered a plus shooter.
Jalen Suggs turned himself into a decent shooter for the Magic, and he led the team in catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts and points via the spot-up last year, but the only other volume 3-point shooter on Orlando was Gary Harris, and the Magic were dying to get him out of the lineup last year.
So, adding KCP into the starting lineup is going to help with spacing, and the guess here is that he is going to have the green light to shoot in what is a great matchup.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 3+ Made 3’s (+250): 0.50 Units
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