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Young has also gone over his assists prop twice in this exact matchup already this season, with 13 and 15 assists on, more importantly, an absurd 19 and 26 potential assists.
In general, Young has been awesome as a playmaker this season. He has gone over 11.5 assists in seven of 11 games this season. He is averaging the second-most assists per game (11.5) in the league on the most potential assists per game (20.5).
The Wizards’ style of defense/lack of it, along with their fast pace, is what leads to them giving up so many assists to point guards.
They have the worst defensive net rating in the entire NBA, while playing at the second-fastest pace as well.
They allow the third-most points per game to the pick-and-roll roll man, the third-most corner 3-point attempts (3PA) and the 10th-most catch-and-shoot 3PA.
All of these baskets are assisted, which allows guards like Trae Young who run a lot of PnR to rack up a ton of assists. For reference, Young runs the most PnR possessions as the ball handler in the NBA, while averaging the eighth-most drives as well.
He has a higher pass rate than all of the players above him in terms of drives per game, which is another reason he has accumulated so many assists.
Trae Young over 11.5 assists (+100): FanDuel
Myles Turner o8.5 Rebounds (+120) FanDuel
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
This is a system play that we have been on essentially all season: center rebound props against the Heat.
The Heat have allowed the most rebounds per game to centers, and, per Props.Cash, they are the second-best matchup for center rebound props as well.
This most likely has to do with the Heat having Bam Adebayo, who is not really a stretch big, at cent. This means that the center getting matched up against Adebayo is consistently close to the basket and able to collect a ton of rebounds.
Turner has had a hit-or-miss season from a rebounding perspective, going over this number in only four of 10 games, but this is the matchup for him to go over. Just look at the game log of centers against the Heat:
Jalen Duren, 11/13: 11 rebounds on an o/u of 10.5 (over was priced for plus-money)
Isaiah Stewart, 11/13: 10 rebounds on an o/u of 5.5
Rudy Gobert, 11/11: 13 rebounds on an o/u of 11.5
Jusuf Nurkic, 11/7: 18 rebounds on an o/u of 10.5
Domantas Sabonis, 11/5: 16 rebounds on an o/u of 13.5
Those examples come from four of the Heat’s last five games, mind you.
Despite Turner having a slow start on the glas, he has gone over this number in five straight games against the Heat in which Adebayo has played, with double-digit boards in four of those five games.
Myles Turner over 8.5 rebounds (+120): 1 Unit
Buddy Hield 4+ Made 3s (+150) FanDuel
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
Our last play of the evening is the juiciest in terms of odds, as we’re taking a heavy catch-and-shoot 3-point volume shooter in Buddy Hield against the best matchup for this type of player, the Grizzlies.
Hield started the season absolutely on fire from 3-point land, hitting four or more triples in five of the Warriors’ first seven games — and in one of the games he went under, he made three of his eight 3PA.
Of course, that type of absurd 3-point shooting was always going to come back down to earth. Sure enough, he has now missed this prop in three straight games.
That just makes this game the perfect time to buy back in on his 3-point prop in an absolutely juicy matchup.
The Grizzlies are currently allowing the most catch-and-shoot (CnS) 3PA in the entire NBA, and by a pretty wide margin. They are allowing 31.3 CnS 3PA per game, with the next-closest team at 29.6.
The funny thing with the Grizzlies is, they allow the most catch-and-shoot 3PA in the NBA, which you would think means they would allow a ton of corner 3s, but that is not the case.
They have the No. 1 defense guarding both the right and the left corner 3, allowing the fewest made corner 3’s in the NBA.
But they have by far the worst defense guarding the above-the-break 3-pointer. They allow 33.7 above-the-break 3PA in the NBA, with the next-closest team at 31.8, and nobody else is above 30.
Hield, unsurprisingly, leads the Warriors in CnS 3PA, with the majority of his 3PA coming from the above-the-break area.
This is the perfect matchup for Hield, and he has also made four 3-pointers in four of five games without DeAnthony Melton, who is out for this game.
Buddy Hield 4+ made 3s (+150): 1 Unit
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