Nate Silver Would Rather Be Kamala Harris Than Donald Trump Right Now

Pollster Nate Silver still doesn’t know who’s going to win the election, but at this point, he thinks Vice President Kamala Harris has the upper hand on former President Donald Trump.

Harris has a slight edge on Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, and is leading nationally by about 3 points. The pollster’s averages also have Harris leading in the majority of swing states, including Pennsylvania, which is potentially critical to Trump’s path to the White House.

On Friday, Silver noted Harris’ lead nationally has grown since his last update and said her path to winning the Electoral College is most likely to include Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Her other option is to win North Carolina, Georgia or both, according to Silver.

“The forecast is still in toss-up range, but we’re getting to the point where we’d say we’d rather have Harris’s hand to play,” Silver wrote.

Harris’ lead is generally within the margin of error in most polls and surveys indicate the race is still extremely close. Trump also historically polls worse than he performs on Election Day, and Silver acknowledged that “stranger things have happened” than the underdog candidate winning. Given how polarized America’s political climate is, Silver also said that elections are more likely to be close and the possibility of a candidate winning is rarely out of the realm of possibility.

Since last week, Harris has gained momentum, albeit minimally, nationally and in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and Nevada, according to Silver’s averages. Trump’s still winning in his home state of Florida, according to polls, despite Harris gaining slightly with voters. Based on current projections, if Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, she’ll have 247 Electoral College votes. If she wins Pennsylvania, which is considered a toss-up, Trump will have to win Minnesota, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia to win the election.

Since Silver’s last update, Trump has gained, also minimally, in North Carolina, Minnesota and Texas.

Trump winning Minnesota would be huge for him and something he hasn’t been able to achieve since his first run in 2016. A Republican hasn’t won the state in the last 12 elections, either. Real Clear Politics has shifted Minnesota from leans Harris to a toss-up.

“It’s quite possible—in Minnesota and elsewhere—that two-thirds of the 5 percent to 10 percent undecided will break in favor of Trump and tilt the race,” Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Hubert H. Humphrey School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota previously told Newsweek.

Based on current forecasts from 270toWin, Harris has 226 electoral college votes and Trump has 219 with Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina still up for grabs. If Trump takes Minnesota from Harris, it will give him 229 electoral votes and drop Harris down to 216.

With the election extremely close, it’s possible a handful of voters could swing it for either side. It also could come down to which candidate can build up enthusiasm with their voters and convince them to get out and vote because neither candidate can afford for people to stay home.