MLB Prop Picks: 3 Best Bets for Tuesday (July 9)

Now that Monday’s travel day is behind us, we have a full MLB betting slate to dive into.

For this article we will be focusing on non-home run MLB player props, so check out our Dinger Tuesday article if you are looking for home run picks specifically.

Play 1: Jameson Taillon over 2.5 Earned Runs (-150) DraftKings

Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET

The -150 odds admittedly are steeper than what we traditionally play, but for good reason when you dig into the matchup. Taillon’s ERA of 2.99 looks pretty, but he is a pitcher that is due for major regression. He has a FIP of 3.79, an expected FIP of 4.24, and a SIERA of 4.22. That -0.81 gap between his ERA and FIP is the 14th-largest gap of all pitchers that have thrown 80 or more innings, which is essentially saying that he has been the 14th-luckiest pitcher in MLB so far.

For context, his xFIP of 4.24 is the 28th-worst in the MLB as well. This is not saying that he is the worst pitcher in the MLB, but that regression should be expected when digging into his numbers. Now, he is going up against an Orioles lineup that has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching on the season and have also been very good recently.

On the year the Orioles have the third-best offense in MLB against RHP according to wRC+, and over the past two weeks they have the second-best offense. Further than that, they have the second-best wOBA, second-best wRAA, and the second-best OPS. Essentially, they have been the second-best offense in the MLB against RHP over the past 14 days. Their lineup across the board features batters who crush righties from Gunnar Henderson to Anthony Santander, so there are just not a lot of spots to coast against the Orioles. Taillon should struggle tonight.

Play 2: Bryan Reynolds over 1.5 Bases (+130) Bet365

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET

Reynolds is also a good play to hit a home run, but the safer play is to take his total bases. Getting him at +130 to get 2+ total bases is good value, and this is a situation where you can ladder him up to 4+ bases as well. Reynolds has had a good year for the Pirates, and he has a great matchup today against Colin Rea of the Brewers.

Reynolds is a switch-hitter, so for today since Rea is a right-handed pitcher Reynolds will be batting lefty. Not only is Reynolds better against RHP, but Rea also struggles more against left-handed hitters. From slugging all the way to wRC+, Reynolds has better stats across the board against righties, and specifically his batted ball stats lend itself to a batter that can hit a bunch of extra base hits but does not quite have great home run specific numbers.

His line-drive rate increases 3 percetnage points going from LHP to RHP, his ground-ball rate drops by 11 points, his fly-ball rate increases by seven points and his hard hit rate increases by four points. Rea, meanwhile, has his numbers get worse across the board against left-handed hitters. Reynolds has also crushed Rea in his career. Their last five at-bats against each other looks like this: single, single, double, single, double. That would be 5-for-5 with two extra base hits for those of you counting at home. Let’s hope Reynolds stays hot against Rea tonight.

Play 3: Max Scherzer under 17.5 Outs (+158) FanDuel

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels, 9:38PM ET

Scherzer has admittedly been very good in this three starts back from injury this season, but the value here is on taking his under outs, especially with the odds being at +158. Scherzers 2.70 ERA and 2.80 expected ERA are very good, but his FIP of 3.95, expected FIP of 4.57 and SIERA of 4.75 show that he is getting lucky to have that low of an ERA.

So, some regression is to be expected, and this Angels lineup, while not being the best lineup in the world, can still get to Scherzer. Even if they don’t score a bunch of runs, at the very least they can rack up the pitch count so Scherzer does not have an efficient game. Over the last 14 days the Angels have the tenth-best average against right-handed pitching and the eighth-best on-base percentage.

Looking at their lineup, they Angels have four of their first five batters in their lineup that have a good average against RHP, hitting .260 or higher. Taylor Ward bats third and is only hitting .209 against righties, but he also has the highest walk-rate of 11.3%, which would be the 24th-ranked walk-rate in MLB. The Angels should be able to do enough to get to Scherzer so he does not pitch a full six innings.

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