We had a great day on these home run props yesterday, getting two to cash thanks to Anthony Santander and Brent Rooker, so let’s see if we can stay hot today. After yesterday’s lighter day, we have a full MLB betting slate today, which is always fun. Let’s get right into it.
Play 1: Tyler O’Neill to Hit a Home Run (+390) FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
O’Neill has been on fire recently, hitting an absurd four home runs over the past week. He has twice hit two home runs in the same game, so if you wanted to double-dip on him to hit two more tonight, that would not be a horrible idea. Unsurprisingly, considering he has four home runs in a seven-day span, his advanced numbers are fantastic over the past week.
His has a barrel rate of 23%, fly-ball rate of 52.9% and a pull-rate of 64.7%. He has been good all year, so it is not as though this is just a recent sample size or anything like that. Of all batters with 300 plate appearances, he has the 10th-best ISO rate at .267, the ninth-best barrel rate of 15.8% and the 12th-highest launch angle at 19.8 degrees. His ability to put the ball in the air has been one of the biggest reasons he has been able to hit so many home runs, and for tonight he has a dream matchup against Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes.
O’Neill, a right-handed hitter who is much better against left-handed pitching, is going up against Cortes, a lefty who is significantly worse against righty hitters. O’Neill’s ISO rate against RHP is .213, and jumps all the way up to .378 against lefties. Cortes, meanwhile, has allowed 19 home runs on the year, including 18 against right-handed hitters. Cortes’ biggest issue is allowing the batter to put the ball in the air, as he has the highest launch angle in the MLB. That is the perfect matchup for someone like O’Neill, who does a great job hitting fly-balls and making contact with a high launch angle.
Play 2: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+400) Caesars
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET
The Phillies offense has been cold, but that has not affected Harper, who has been pretty good recently. He has hit two home runs over the past week, with 12 total HardHits since the return of the All-Star break. He has at least two HardHits in every game over the past week except for one — two HardHits in five of six games — and all those games were away. Harper has historically been a much better batter in front of the Philly home crowd.
Of Harper’s 23 home runs, 15 have been hit at home, with a home ISO rate of .316 and an away ISO rate of .230. Home/road splits can sometimes just be noise as opposed to actionable from a betting perspective, but for Harper, they are significant. Overall, he has the ninth-best ISO rate in the MLB at .277 and a barrel rate of 12.3%, which is in the “great” category defined by FanGraphs as opposed to “excellent.”
He is going up against Ben Lively of the Guardians, who is not a horrible pitcher, but definitely not anybody to be scared off of. Lively allows the second-fastest average exit velocity of all pitchers that have thrown at least 90 innings, with the 18th-highest HardHit rate as well. The three most common pitches he throws are 4-seam fastballs, sinkers, and sliders, and Harper has an ISO rate of .267 against 4-seamers, .309 against singers and .297 against sliders.
Play 3: Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+420) FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
For our last pick of the slate, we are going back to the Yankees-Red Sox game and riding with the Yankees’ Juan Soto to hit one yard. You could make the argument that Soto has been the hottest or second-hottest hitter in baseball over the past week. He has hit three home runs, has the third-most HardHits and boasts a barrel rate of 34.8%. He has been excellent recently, and he has been excellent the entire year.
Soto has hit the sixth-most home runs in MLB, with the fourth-best ISO rate at .289 and the third-best barrel rate at 20.1%. Soto also has the third-best HardHit rate at 57.9% and the fourth-fastest average exit velocity at 94.7MPH. He is better against RHP, with an ISO of .312 against RHP, up from .234 against lefties, and for tonight he has a great matchup against right-handed Brayan Bello of the Red Sox.
Bello has been one of the coldest pitchers in MLB, according to RotoWire, allowing 19 hits in his last 61 at-bats (.311 average), with nine extra-base hits, including one home run. The home run numbers should come up given the way he has been getting rocked recently, and it does not help him that Soto crushes the pitches he throws most frequently. Bello’s most common pitch thrown is a sinker, and Soto has an ISO rate of .394 against sinkers. These two faced each other back in June, and Soto crushed a double off Bello. Let’s hope he crushes one yard today.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
