Kamala Harris Gets Worrying Sign in Bellwether Pennsylvania County: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris received a worrying sign in a bellwether county in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a poll published on Friday.

Election Day is only three days away and tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots early in a tight race between Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee.

Pennsylvania is key to win because it has 19 electoral votes, the most out of all seven swing states. It is also one of the swing states that has the smallest margin of voter support between the two candidates.

A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll has Harris and Trump tied with 49 percent of the vote each. The poll was conducted from October 27 to 30, surveyed 500 likely Pennsylvania voters and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

However, Harris has a worrying sign when looking at the bellwether Northampton County. A bellwether region is a place where the election results typically reflect how the overall electorate votes.

Friday’s poll had Trump slightly leading Harris in Northampton County (50 to 48 percent). However, the two candidates are tied with 48 percent each in another Pennsylvania bellwether, Erie County. The polls surveyed 300 likely voters in each county. The polls’ results fall within their margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

In September, Harris was leading Trump in Erie and Northampton counties—both where outcomes have correctly predicted the overall winner of presidential elections since 2008.

Polls released then by USA Today and Suffolk University showed Trump trailing Harris by 5 points in Northampton County and 4 percentage points in Erie County.

Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment late Saturday morning.

How Are the Candidates Doing in Pennsylvania Overall?

Trump and Harris are faring about the same in Pennsylvania, according to two different poll aggregators.

The former president has 47.8 percent of voter support and Harris has 47.7 percent, according to 538’s numbers from Saturday afternoon. Trump has a slightly bigger lead (48.3 to 48 percent) in polling analyst Nate Silver’s presidential model, which was last updated late Saturday morning.

National Polling Averages

Meanwhile, 538 has Harris leading Trump a little over 1 point (48 to 46.8 percent) as of Saturday, while Silver has the vice president slightly ahead of Trump on the national stage (48.5 to 47.4 percent) as of Saturday.

National polls just predict the popular vote because of America’s Electoral College system, which awards the presidency to the candidate with 270 or more electoral votes, which are distributed to states based on its number of senators and representatives, rather than the overall number of votes cast across the country. On the other hand, national polls can help to anticipate trends in state polls.

Past Election Predictions in Pennsylvania?

During Trump’s first presidential run in 2016, 538 predicted on Election Day that his Democratic opponent former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a 77 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania as opposed to Trump’s 23 percent chance.

Trump, however, ended up winning Pennsylvania by a small margin of 48.2 to 47.5 percent.

On Election Day in 2020, 538 had now-President Joe Biden, a Democrat, ahead of Trump by over 4 points (50.2 to 45.6 percent), according to its polling averages.

Biden ended up beating Trump in Pennsylvania by a razor-thin margin of 50 to 48.8 percent.

Biden won Northampton County and Erie County by a narrow 1 percent margin in 2020, while Trump defeated Clinton in 2016 by 4 points in Northampton and 2 points in Erie.