Kamala Harris Gets Good News in Must-Win State From Most Accurate Pollster

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is pulling ahead in Pennsylvania, a pivotal battleground state, according to a recent poll from The New York Times/Siena College, which is ranked by FiveThirtyEight as the most reliable pollster in the United States.

The winner of Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral votes—more than any other swing state—could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in the Keystone State found Harris leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, by 3 percentage points.

The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10 and published on Saturday, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 47 percent. However, Harris’ lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. In addition, the poll reported that 3 percent of respondents didn’t know who they supported or refused to answer.

Harris leads among women, with 58 percent backing her compared to 40 percent for Trump. She holds an overwhelming lead among Black voters, 81 percent to Trump’s 16 percent, according to the poll.

FiveThirtyEight evaluates pollsters based on their historical accuracy and methodological transparency, awarding the Times/Siena College 3 out of 3 stars.

Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Saturday.

Recent polls in the battleground state show a near deadlock between Harris and Trump, with any lead falling within the margin of error.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters found Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point, with 49 percent of respondents backing Trump and 48 percent supporting Harris. The poll, conducted between October 5 and 8, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

On the other hand, a Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov survey of 1,000 registered voters found Harris leading Trump in the state by 46.8 percent to 44.7 percent. The poll was conducted between September 24 and October 2, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.19 percentage points.

The Times‘ aggregate poll has Harris leading 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 47.9 percent and Trump at 47.5 percent, while The Hill has Harris at 48.6 percent and Trump at 48 percent.

Harris’ clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia and flipping Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but President Joe Biden flipped it back in 2020.

Meanwhile, both campaigns have made frequent stops in Pennsylvania. Last weekend, Trump recently returned to Butler, the site of a previous assassination attempt, and earlier this week former President Barack Obama headlined a rally in Philadelphia in support of Harris’ campaign.