Kamala Harris Chances of Winning in 3 Critical Swing States: Polls

After President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance against former President Donald Trump last month, some Democrats are looking to Vice President Kamala Harris to potentially lead the presidential ticket in the event that Biden steps down.

Biden and Trump took to the debate stage in Atlanta on June 27 in their first such encounter in nearly four years. Looming over the event was the issue of the president’s age. At 81, Biden is the oldest president in U.S. history.

Concerns about his age exploded after he stumbled during his answers, sounded hoarse, and at one point trailed off while answering a question, apparently losing his train of thought. Afterward, there were calls among some Democrats for Biden to step aside as the party’s nominee.

While there’s no clear frontrunner in terms of a Biden replacement, one obvious possible contender is Harris. The 59-year-old is notably younger than Biden and Trump, who is three years Biden’s junior and who has also faced questions about his age. Harris would also be the easiest Democrat for the Biden-Harris campaign to switch to as the party’s candidate.

Biden has vowed to stay in the race and Harris has made it clear that she fully supports him. However, if Biden were to step down from the race, here’s what voters in three crucial swing states think of a potential Harris presidency, according to recent polling.

Michigan

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll conducted from July 1 to 5 of 694 registered voters in the state revealed that a majority of participants have an unfavorable view of Harris and oppose her replacing Biden on the ticket.

Regarding her favorability, 42 percent said they had a very unfavorable view of her, with 10 percent saying they had a somewhat unfavorable view. On the other hand, 24 percent indicated they had a very favorable view of her, with 19 percent saying that they had a somewhat favorable view.

The poll also found that 40 percent of voters strongly opposed her replacing Biden on the ticket, with 10 percent somewhat opposing. Meanwhile, 24 percent said they strongly support the move while 19 percent said they somewhat support it.

When asked how much they would trust Harris to assume the responsibilities of the presidency if Biden was unable to fulfill his duties, 28 percent said they would trust her a lot, 22 percent indicated they had some trust, 40 percent said they wouldn’t trust her at all, 8 percent said not much, and 2 percent had no opinion.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Previous polling on Harris in Michigan indicates a small favor towards Trump. An October 2023 New York Times/Siena poll found that when 616 Michigan voters were asked who they would vote for if the candidates were listed as Harris, Trump, or someone else, 45 percent said Harris and 47 percent said Trump.

The survey was conducted from October 22 to November 2, 2023, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Pennsylvania

A Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll of 794 registered voters in Pennsylvania, conducted from July 1 to 4, found that the majority of participants have an unfavorable opinion of Harris, don’t trust her to fulfill the duties of the presidency, and don’t support her being on the ticket instead of Biden. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Specifically, 45 percent hold a very unfavorable opinion of Harris, with 10 percent having a somewhat unfavorable opinion of her. On the favorable side, 19 percent find her very favorable while 23 percent said she was somewhat favorable.

When asked about their trust in Harris to carry out the presidency if Biden was unable to do so, the majority were skeptical, with 42 percent saying not at all and 12 percent indicating not much trust. Meanwhile, 24 percent said they had a lot of trust in her abilities and 19 percent said they had some trust.

The poll also found that just over half of the participants don’t believe she should replace Biden on the ballot, with 41 percent strongly opposing the move and 11 percent saying they were somewhat against it. Around 40 percent of participants appear to support it, with 21 percent strongly supporting Harris on the ticket and 19 percent somewhat in favor of it.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 registered voters in the state conducted from February 14 to 16, found the vice president to trail Trump in a hypothetical matchup. The poll found that 49 percent of voters would support Trump and 40 percent Harris, with 11 percent undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, a Morning Consult/Bloomberg News survey of 695 registered voters found that the majority do not have a favorable impression of Harris and don’t trust her to assume the responsibilities of the presidency.

Specifically, 39 percent have a very unfavorable opinion of her and 14 percent said they had a somewhat unfavorable view of her. Meanwhile, 16 percent find her very favorable and 24 percent said they found her somewhat favorable.

If Biden were unable to fulfill his presidential duties, the survey asked how much they would trust Harris to carry them out. Forty-one percent said not at all, 11 percent said not much, 24 percent said they had a lot of trust and 20 percent said somewhat.

In a closer split, 44 percent of voters strongly oppose Harris appearing on the ballot instead of Biden, with 8 percent somewhat opposing. In addition, 25 percent strongly approve of the potential move and 16 percent somewhat supportive.

The poll, conducted from July 1 to 5, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Another poll in the state, conducted by North Star Opinion Research, found of the 600 participants that if Harris was on the ticket against Trump, she would garner 47 percent of the vote to his 48 percent. The poll of likely voters was conducted on July 6 to 10, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Swing State Context

As the presidential election is won by Electoral College votes and not the popular vote, swing states are closely watched during the leadup to the election as battleground states often carry a high number of electoral votes that can sway an election.

With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, to win all the state’s electoral votes, a candidate must secure the state’s popular vote. To win the presidency, a candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes.

Nathaniel Rakich, senior editor and senior elections analyst at poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, previously wrote in an ABC News article in May that “if [Biden] carries Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus every other state and district that he won by at least 6 points in 2020, he would finish with exactly 270 electoral votes.”

If the Democratic candidate wins only those three swing states and maintains the historically-Democratic states, they would need to win the congressional district in Omaha, Nebraska, too, in order for the party to stay in the Oval Office.

National Polling

Nationally, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Thursday, if Harris replaces Biden on the Democratic presidential ticket, she would lead Trump in the popular vote. The survey of 2,431 adults found a lead of 49 percent to 46 percent among all adults. Among registered voters, she held a narrower lead of 49 percent to 47 percent.

The poll, conducted online between July 5 and 9, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, which could place the candidates in a deadlock.

Newsweek reached out to Biden’s and Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Saturday.