Joe Biden’s Astonishing Polling Comeback

President Joe Biden’s chances of securing reelection in November have improved significantly according to a number of recent polls, with two respected polling aggregate sites putting him level or ahead of presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Recent surveys by Morning Consult and the Marquette University Law School both suggest Biden has the lead in terms of the popular vote, as does an analysis of recent polling by the aggregation website Race to the WH (White House). However the situation is looking less rosy in polling focusing specifically on crucial swing seats, with Trump having a lead over the Democratic incumbent in most of these.

In March Trump and Biden both became their respective party’s presumptive 2024 presidential candidates after a series of primary victories, focusing attention on how a rematch of the 2020 presidential election could play out.

Newsweek has contacted a spokesperson for the 2024 Biden reelection campaign for comment by email.

A Morning Consult survey of 6,018 registered voters conducted between March 29 and 31 put Biden in the lead with 44 percent of the vote, ahead of Trump on 42 percent with all other named candidates combined getting 8 percent.

Similarly, a Marquette University Law School poll put Biden ahead of Trump by 52 percent against 48 percent with likely voters. The survey covered 674 likely voters and took place between March 18 and 28. This represented a stark reversal of the previous Marquette University Law School poll, which took place from February 5-15 and had Trump in the lead among likely voters, 52 percent against Biden’s 48 percent.

A polling aggregation calculated by the Race to the WH website gave Biden a wafer thin lead of 0.1 percentage point in terms of the national vote on April 5, with the incumbent on 46.5 percent against 46.4 percent for his challenger.

Noticeably this was the first time Biden had a lead over Trump with Race to the WH since November 15, with the president having recovered more than two percentage points.

According to the website, the team behind Race to the WH weigh the polls they incorporate into their model based on past accuracy, sample size and how recently they were published.

A separate polling aggregate created by The Economist found Trump and Biden were tied at 46 percent on April 3, the best result the president has recorded compared to his Republican rival since September 15, 2023.

Online prediction platform Polymarket, where users can bet on world events, has also seen Biden’s chances of victory improve substantially against Trump, though he remains the slight underdog. At the beginning of this month, the website had Biden on a 44 percent chance of winning versus 47 percent for Trump, compared to February 25 when the Republican was ahead 54 percent to 33 percent.

While his national performance has improved, Biden still appears to be struggling in the key battleground states which are likely to decide who occupies the White House from January 2025 onwards. A series of Wall Street Journal polls conducted between March 17 and 24 found Trump was ahead in Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia while the two rivals were tied in Wisconsin.

A separate survey conducted in Pennsylvania by Franklin & Marshall College gave Trump a 10-point lead, with the GOP challenger at 48 percent versus 38 percent for Biden. This survey took place between March 20 and 31.