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Hail Mary vs Bears and Jayden Daniels improbable TDs

November 2, 2024


  • John Keim, ESPN Staff WriterNov 2, 2024, 06:00 AM ET

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      John Keim covers the Washington Commanders for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2013 after a stint with the Washington Post. He started covering the team in 1994 for the Journal Newspapers and later for the Washington Examiner. He has authored/co-authored four books. You can also listen to him on ‘The John Keim Report’, which airs on ESPN Richmond radio, and follow him on Twitter @john_keim

ASHBURN, Va. — Every Friday, Washington Commanders quarterbacks and those who coach them gather for a competition. They set up a yellow garbage can in the corner of the end zone and attempt to throw a ball in the bucket from about 20 to 30 yards away. It’s a chance to show off their arms and accuracy during a friendly competition.

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has not yet dropped one in the bucket. Others, including some of the coaches, have done so. But Daniels is not bothered by losing this sort of competition.

“It’s not a moving target,” Daniels said.

He has a point.

In games, when a perfect pass needs to be made — and when making throws considered to have a low probability for success — Daniels stands out. He leads the NFL with four touchdown passes that, according to Next Gen Stats, had a probability for completion of 30% or less — the most memorable of which coming on Sunday’s 52-yard Hail Mary against the Chicago Bears. He has a fifth touchdown that had a 30.4% chance for completion. He has the third-highest completion percentage on throws that have a 30% chance of completion or less, and his 10.9 yards per attempt are the most in the NFL of any quarterback with at least 15 such attempts, according to ESPN Research.

“Regardless of the situation, he feels confident in his ability to put the ball where he wants to,” Washington’s backup quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has thrown one in the bucket, said. “Sometimes guys are in those situations and they’re hopeful, but he’s very in command of that moment.”

Daniels also has three completions on balls that have traveled 50 or more air yards. According to ESPN Research, that’s the most such completions since ESPN started tracking air yards in 2006.

“He’s not great at the trash can drill,” Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said, “but he’s really good on the field. So, I think that that’ll work out for him.”

Here’s a look at the four touchdowns that had the lowest chance for completion:

‘Little nuances’ lead to a TD vs. Ravens

The play: Washington was facing second-and-goal in a Week 6 game against the Baltimore Ravens. Daniels connected with McLaurin in the back of the end zone from seven yards out to tie the score at 10.

Probability for completion: 28.1%

On the play, Daniels first looked to his right for receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, who started inside then cut back outside. Daniels braced to throw but the cornerback took away the route. Daniels brought the ball down, reset his feet and found McLaurin running across the field to the back of the end zone on the same side. Because Daniels went through his progressions at the right pace, the safety had come down on Daniels’ first look and left a lane to hit McLaurin. It was a textbook example of Daniels’ sound mechanics.

“It’s being able to time up when the guy comes open,” Commanders passing game coordinator Brian Johnson said. “Once the safety [bit], they created a window behind him… [Then it’s] just being able to tie in your feet, drive [the ball] with aggression. Those are little nuances he’s done.”

While that throw was difficult, Daniels’ teammates pointed to two other passes in the game that were even more impressive. One of which was another touchdown to McLaurin that had a 30.4% probability for completion. On that throw, Daniels delivered a perfect back-shoulder pass as he was drifting and about to get hit for a 6-yard score.

Three plays before the pass to McLaurin, on third-and-10, Daniels found tight end Zach Ertz for a 12-yard gain. Ertz cut behind linebacker Roquan Smith and Daniels threw the ball as he was getting hit and before Ertz had crossed behind Smith to an opening. It had a 64.3% probability for completion, but Mariota marveled at the throw.

“Oh my goodness. That was probably one of the better throws that I’ve seen in my career,” Mariota said. “That anticipation, that confidence to throw that ball was next level.”

The Hail Mary vs. Bears

The play: The Commanders, trailing 15-12, were on their own 48-yard line with two seconds remaining in a Week 8 game against the Bears. Daniels heaved a pass to the end zone that was tipped by Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and fell into the arms of receiver Noah Brown for a game-winning touchdown.

Probability for completion: 24.2%

While the completion probability is not the lowest of Daniels’ touchdowns this season, it also only had a 1.4% chance of resulting in a touchdown. Daniels extended the play by 12.7 seconds, which allowed his receivers to get into position while he found a good spot to throw.

He unleashed a pass that traveled 65.9 yards in the air.

“Just throw the ball up, give my guys a shot. I didn’t see anything,” Daniels said. “I just heard people screaming in our side, rushing the field. So that’s how I knew.”

Right guard Sam Cosmi said the ending was “something out of a movie.” But Kingsbury said those storybook endings stem from Daniels’ mindset.

“He has a fearlessness about him when he plays. He cuts it loose and believes,” Kingsbury said. “And in practice it’s not like he’s just trying to complete it, he’s trying to make the perfect throw and he judged himself on that, which the great ones do.”

Turning a ‘slight chance’ into six points vs. Browns

The play: Washington led the Cleveland Browns, 17-3, with 41 seconds left in the first half. On second-and-7 from the Browns’ 41, Daniels hit receiver Dyami Brown for a touchdown.

Probability for completion: 17.9%

Two plays before Brown scored, Washington ran a similar play but the pass was thrown elsewhere. Daniels ran the ball out of bounds on the Washington sidelines on the ensuing play. As he ran back to the huddle, he stopped by Kingsbury and suggested a play. Kingsbury didn’t hesitate to say yes.

Daniels, in shotgun formation, took a three-step drop, held the safety with his eyes and hit Brown in stride three yards into the end zone.

“He just takes little chances,” Brown said. “A lot of times the percentage is low because a lot of people wouldn’t take those chances. You can’t treat it as, ‘Oh it’s a slight chance somebody will complete this ball.’ [He’s like], ‘Even if it’s a slight chance let me just do it anyway.'”

Daniels said it’s a matter of trust between him and his receivers.

“Not just myself, but also my teammates to go out there and make tough plays,” he said. “That’s how you build that brotherhood. You’ve got to trust each other to go out there and make plays.”

‘Right into the bucket’ vs. Bengals

The play: With 2:15 left in a Week 3 Monday night game at the Cincinnati Bengals, the Commanders led 31-26 but faced a third-and-7 from the 27-yard line. The Bengals blitzed Daniels, who hit tightly-covered McLaurin in the end zone.

Probability for completion: 10.3%

McLaurin said they drew up this play on the sideline. He wanted to run a go-route vs. cornerback Daxton Hill on the right side. They anticipated press coverage, which means McLaurin could have just made a move at the line and sped to the goal line. But the Bengals played a cover-zero and Hill was aligned six yards off McLaurin at the snap.

Daniels threw the ball as he was being hit by a free rusher and with McLaurin at the 19-yard line. McLaurin caught it approximately five yards deep in the end zone, helping Washington secure a 38-33 victory.

“It was one of the hardest throws you can make because of the situation and we didn’t really practice that play,” McLaurin said. “When I saw he was off I was going to have to give him a double move. Some quarterbacks don’t know the timing of that because you don’t have a lot of space and he threw it with just enough air where it fell right into the bucket.”

Into the bucket, indeed.





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