Fresh Polling Blow for Kari Lake in Arizona

Republican Senate hopeful Kari Lake is trailing her Democratic rival Rep. Ruben Gallego in the 2024 Arizona race, according to a survey by Marist College released on Thursday.

Gallego had 54 percent support among lively voters statewide, whilst Lake had 44 percent. With independents, Lake lagged behind on 32 percent compared to Gallego’s 64 percent.

The Marist poll surveyed 1,507 registered voters and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

The candidates are in competition to succeed incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat turned Independent, who is not seeking a second term.

The Marist poll’s findings follow a separate survey by Siena College/The New York Times published Monday which found that 43 percent of respondents said they would vote for Lake, while 49 percent said they would vote for Gallego.

Newsweek has contacted Kari Lake’s campaign team for comment via email outside of standard working hours.

In the presidential race, however, Marist gave Republican candidate former President Donald Trump a narrow one-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Since 38 of the 50 states have voted for the same political party from 2000 to 2016, the winner is almost always decided by a handful of “swing states,” also known as “purple” or “battleground” states. This year’s election is likely to hinge on seven – one of which is Arizona.

“Arizona is one of the few truly purple states in the Union featuring Democrat-leaning urban and suburban counties which have edged ever-bluer with the arrival especially of young tech workers to areas such as Maricopa County, now home to nearly two thirds of the state’s population,” Mark Shanahan associate professor of political engagement at the U.K.’s University of Surrey told Newsweek.

“Much of the rest of the state remains rural and these outlying areas are deep red Republican. They’ll vote GOP for whoever’s at the top of the ticket, and, living an awful long way from D.C., most remain staunchly supportive of Trump and his ‘outsider’ narrative.

“While Trump is championed for his often contradictory political positions, Lake, a staunch Trump supporter, is considered an extremist in a state with a strong number of moderate Republicans, especially in and around the Phoenix and Tucson areas.”

Lake was the Republican candidate for Arizona Governor in 2022, but lost the election. She would go on to claim that the election was stolen from her – claims that resulted in a lawsuit from Maricopa County election official Stephen Richer.

Shanahan said Lake’s refusal to accept this loss and her continued court cases stemming from the election have done little to attract some members of the Arizona electorate.

Shanahan added: “Her Democrat opponent for [Senator], Rep Ruben Gallego has a wide appeal and is running a smart campaign. Swing voters and Arizona’s very few undecided voters are moving towards him. With an already-strong Democrat base, he’s performing even better in the state than Kamala Harris – no doubt because he’s facing a weaker opponent.”

Republicans are seeking to gain control of the upper chamber after falling short in the November 2022 midterm elections, despite anticipations of a “red wave.”

An election forecast model by polling firm YouGov suggests that this year the Republican Party may be successful in these aims. Republicans were given edges in 13 Senate seats on the ballot, and hold 38 seats not on the ballot – giving them 51 seats.

Members of the Democratic Party (or independents who align Democratic) were given advantages in 19 seats on the ballot, and hold 28 seats not on the ballot, totaling 47.

Two seats – Arizona and Ohio were rated as “tossups.”

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