Fermanagh and South Tyrone profile

Fermanagh and South Tyrone was the most marginal seat in the UK in the 2019 Westminster election with Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew narrowly winning with a majority of just 57.

From the border village of Belleek in the west to the outskirts of Armagh in the east, it covers a large rural population as well as the towns of Enniskillen and Dungannon.

While geographically it is the largest constituency in Northern Ireland, elections often produce the highest turnouts and the narrowest margins of victory.

Every vote counts in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Over the last two decades, it has produced a series of dramatic results.

In 2010, the winning margin was just four votes, and the outcome was only confirmed after a legal challenge.

Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew has been the MP since 2001, apart from two years between 2015-17 when the Ulster Unionist Party’s (UUP) Tom Elliott held the seat.

Fermanagh was once the stronghold of the UUP but they failed to win any Westminster seats in the last general election.

They came a very close second here in 2019 – could they go one better in 2024?

Although there are six candidates in the field, this election is set to be another two-horse race to be first past the post.

Outgoing MP Michelle Gildernew decided not to defend her seat having announced she was contesting the European election in the Republic.

She stood in the Midlands North-West constituency but failed to pick up the fifth and final seat.

In a surprise move Sinn Féin revealed former nursing union leader Pat Cullen as their candidate.

As general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing she has had a high profile during recent nationwide public sector strikes.

It could be a shrewd move, as the health service is a hot topic on the doorsteps.

The collapse of emergency general surgery at the South West Acute Hospital, the closure of rural GP surgeries and lengthy waiting lists top many voters’ concerns.

Five years ago, Tom Elliott was the agreed unionist candidate, endorsed by the DUP before he had even been officially selected by his own party.

This time the UUP are fielding Diana Armstrong, a Fermanagh and Omagh district councillor.

Her father Harry West was a former unionist MP and leader of the UUP between 1974 and 1979.

She is the only unionist on the ballot paper, after the DUP and TUV decided not to contest the seat, but she is not an “agreed candidate”.

Diana Armstrong says she is offering a positive message of unionism, insisting the UUP has consistently opposed the Northern Ireland protocol, the post-Brexit trade agreement which introduced some new checks on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Former councillor Paul Blake is standing for the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), while Eddie Roofe, who won Alliance’s first council seat in Enniskillen, will be hoping to increase his party’s support west of the Bann.

Gerry Cullen is representing Cross-Community Labour Alternative and Aontú are fielding Carl Duffy.

There have been some changes in the east of the constituency, which means it extends across three counties: Fermanagh, Tyrone and Armagh.

The addition of Blackwatertown has brought the boundary to the outskirts of the city of Armagh, while Killyman at the end of the M1 motorway has moved to Mid Ulster.

Tom Elliott described the changes as “puzzling” which suggests that unionists feel their vote has been squeezed.

Analysis of how people voted in 2019 points to the boundary change benefitting Sinn Féin by about 500 votes, but predictions have been proved wrong before.

While the leaders of the DUP and TUV have told their voters to support Diana Armstrong, it appears their local party members will not be helping to canvass voters.

They had approached a senior Orangeman in Fermanagh to stand as a non-party agreed candidate.

But the UUP leader Doug Beattie has targeted Fermanagh and South Tyrone as one of four seats where the party has a real chance of topping the poll.

The failure to reach a local agreement has deepened the disharmony within unionism.

Some DUP voters on the doorsteps have said they are disillusioned and will not be voting.

Overcoming voter apathy will be key to winning this seat.

Michelle Gildernew has been a big name in local politics for more than 25 years and Sinn Féin are hoping that Pat Cullen will follow in her footsteps.

She has answered questions about the Troubles by saying as a nurse she treated victims from all backgrounds whose suffering she described as being the same.

Originally from Carrickmore (in the West Tyrone constituency) and now living in Belfast, she insists she is not a “blow in” with her husband’s family hailing from Dungannon.

If she wins, she will follow Sinn Féins policy of abstentionism and will not take her seat in Parliament which she calls an “echo chamber”.

It may take some time for a victor to be declared following the close of polls.

It will be after midnight before ballot boxes from some of the remote border polling stations arrive at the count centre up to 80 miles away in Magherafelt.

Experience suggests it could be another long night of drama.