England vs. Slovakia Pick: Best Bets for Euro 2024 Round of 16

Euro 2024’s round of 16 kicked off on Saturday with two games whose outcomes were never in doubt. On Sunday, the slate features two more contests that oddsmakers expect to be one-sided.

At noon ET, tournament favorite England takes on heavy underdog Slovakia. In Sunday’s late game at 3 p.m., Spain face Georgia. The latter is the only team with longer than 10-to-1 moneyline odds to win its round of 16 matchup.

Both England-Slovakia and Spain-Georgia will air on FOX.

England vs. Slovakia Moneyline odds

England vs. Slovakia Betting Analysis

England remains the tournament favorite, even after an underwhelming showing in group play. Whether Gareth Southgate’s team can improve enough in the final third to advance beyond the quarters is one of the biggest unanswered questions of Euro 2024.

But against Slovakia, which profiles as one of the worst teams that reached the round of 16, England should advance even if its struggles to generate scoring opportunities continue.

Since stunning Belgium 1-0 on June 17 in one of the biggest upsets in Euro history, Slovakia have been who pundits thought they were, losing 2-1 to Ukraine and drawing Romania 1-1.

Bettors shouldn’t expect Sunday’s match to be a breeze for England. There’s nevertheless not much of a case for Slovakia to upset England, which posted by far the lowest expected goals allowed (xGA) figure — 1.1 — of the 24 teams in group play.

Spain vs. Georgia Moneyline odds

Spain vs. Georgia Betting Analysis

Georgia is coming off a shocking win over Portugal in the final match of Group F. Napoli’s 23-year-old star winger, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, leads one of the stories of the tournament. The win over Portugal, which was sparked by an early goal from Kvaratskhelia, sealed a spot in the round of 16, a massive success for a country making its first appearance in this competition.

Georgia embodies the phrase “playing with house money,” but if the odds for this match are anything to go by, Sunday’s battle with Spain looms as the end of the road.

Remarkably, Georgia has made it this far despite boasting by far the highest xGA (8.0) of any team in the field.

Euro 2024 Best Bets for June 30, 2024

Play 1: England to win and Slovakia not to score (-105) BetMGM

Did we mention that England has been tough to crack? The only goal this team has allowed came on a brilliant long-range strike by Denmark’s Morten Hjulmand from about 24 yards out.

If that’s what it takes to beat this defense, betting on the Three Lions to keep a clean sheet makes a ton of sense.

Play 2: Both Teams to Score — Yes (+145) DraftKings

For a higher-upside play in Spain vs. Georgia, see below.

Although Switzerland and Germany both managed shutout victories on Saturday — and England look poised to do the same — this play makes sense here after a closer look at Spain’s defensive performances to date.

While La Roja allowed zero goals in group play, they may be due to concede after surrendering no shortage of scoring opportunities (2.7 xGA, to be exact) in their first three Euro 2024 matches.

Play 3: Spain vs. Georgia — 3-Leg Single-Game Parlay (SGP): Spain Team Total Over 1.5 AND First Half Total Over 0.5 AND Both Teams to Score — Yes (+220) DraftKings

We rarely recommend two-leg parlays, much less three-leggers, but you have to get creative to find value when the favorite is -500 or longer and the underdog is 14-to-1.

Spain scoring two goals feels like a lock given Georgia’s defensive issues.

As for this SGP’s second leg, it’s hard to know when the dam will break for Georgia against Spain, but one way or another, expect there to be at least one goal on the scoreboard by halftime.

See above for the logic behind including the plus-money BTTS prop in this SGP.

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