Elissa Slotkin’s Chances of Beating Republican Opponent, According to Polls

Representative Elissa Slotkin looks like she may be in for a tough race to hold Michigan’s open Senate seat for Democrats, with polling showing her neck-and-neck with her top Republican challenger, former Representative Mike Rogers.

Outgoing Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, 74, has held the Michigan seat for over two decades, first taking office in the upper chamber of Congress in 2001. With Stabenow’s retirement, Republicans are hopeful that they can flip the seat in the critical swing state—particularly as many recent Michigan polls show President Joe Biden down in a rematch with former President Donald Trump. Analysts often noted that the top of the ballot races can have an impact on down ballot competitions.

The Michigan primary for the Senate race won’t be held until August 6, but Slotkin and Rogers are viewed as the favorites to win. Polls have shown them leading their rivals by large double-digit margins, while Rogers also has Trump’s endorsement.

“The Biden-Slotkin agenda of soaring costs and lawlessness at the border and at home has been a complete and total failure for Michigan families,” Chris Gustafson, the Rogers campaign communications director, told Newsweek in a Saturday email.

“When faced with a choice between four more years of chaos or Mike Rogers’ plan to secure our border, lower costs, and end the job-killing EV mandates, Mike will be the clear choice for Michiganders come November,” he said.

Slotkin’s deputy communications director Antoine Givens told Newsweek in an email that her campaign has “built a grassroots campaign that is drawing support from across Michigan.”

“The difference between Elissa and her Republican opponents is clear: Elissa is fighting for Michigan’s middle class families, standing up to special interests like Big Pharma, and protecting our rights and democracy. Michiganders will face a real choice in November, and we continue to build a campaign that will make that contrast clear,” Givens said.

What the Polls Show

The most recent survey, carried out by Emerson College Polling/The Hill/Nexstar from April 25 to 29, showed Slotkin narrowly ahead of Rogers. The Democrat had the support of 42 percent of registered Michigan voters compared to 40 percent who backed the Republican candidate. An additional 19 percent said they remained undecided. The poll included 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, meaning the race is statistically tied.

A similar survey conducted by Emerson/The Hill/Nexstar in March had similar results. In that poll of 1,000 registered Michigan voters, Slotkin had the backing of 41 percent whereas Rogers had support from 39 percent. The margin of error was the same.

Meanwhile, polling by Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS) Inc. from March 15 to 16, showed a dead heat, with Slotkin and Rogers tied at 37 percent. That survey included 627 likely Michigan voters.

Notably, ABC News’ polling analysis site FiveThiryEight currently shows Trump leading Biden in Michigan by an average of 1.4 points—42.2 percent to 40.8 percent. RealClear Polling’s average has Trump at 46 percent compared to Biden’s 44.8 percent, a lead of 1.2 points.

The Stakes

With Democrats controlling the Senate by a one-seat margin, the stakes are high for both political parties in Michigan. Democrats aim to hold onto every seat they currently hold in order to maintain control of the upper chamber of Congress. Meanwhile, Republicans hope to flip seats like the one in Michigan to wrestle back power.

Analysts believe the 2024 Senate election map appears to favor Republicans overall, with numerous potential pickup opportunities in swing and largely red states. Democrats, conversely, will be defending seats that they already hold, with only a few long shot potential pick-up opportunities in red states.