Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning Election Suddenly Slide

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have suddenly decreased, one polling model shows.

In November, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face his Democratic rival, incumbent President Joe Biden, and so far, polls have shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight—with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.

Still, as voters count down to polling day, interest remains in daily polling changes, which predict the pair’s fortunes in real time. On Tuesday, according to one such daily prediction model by The Economist, Trump had a three in four chance of winning the election, while Biden had a one in four chance. The model showed the Republican winning 306 Electoral College votes to Biden’s 232.

As of Wednesday, Trump’s chances of winning have slid. The Economist‘s model now says the former president, with 300 Electoral College votes, has a two in three chance of winning the election. Biden, with 238 votes, now has a one in three chance.

Newsweek contacted a representative for Trump for comment by email.

The Electoral College awards each state a certain number of votes based on population, and a presidential candidate must secure 270 electoral votes for victory. Winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.

Other polls have also suggested Trump’s fortunes are declining. An Echelon Insights poll of 1,013 voters, conducted between June 10 and 12 found that 48 percent of respondents would vote for Biden, while 47 percent would vote for Trump.

However, various polls have suggested other outcomes. For instance, on Sunday, a projection by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight showed Trump winning 51 times out of 100 election simulations, while Biden won 49 times.

With more than four months to go until polling day, it is still too early to call the results of the election.

Speaking to Newsweek, Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., said the polls would narrow by November, and that it was more important to scrutinize the differences between the two candidates’ policy offerings.

“The race will likely continue to narrow, as is typical, by November,” he said. “We can only hope that our news media begin to move away from the horse-race model of ‘who is ahead’ based on polls and models that have at best a mixed record of accuracy—and instead focus more on deeper analysis of the policy differences so that whatever choice the public makes is an informed one.”

On June 27, Biden and Trump are set to meet in Atlanta for the first of two scheduled debates ahead of the general election on November 5.