Donald Trump Going to Jail ‘More Likely,’ Law Professor Predicts

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of ending up behind bars are “more likely now” due to his lack of remorse and repeated violations of Judge Juan Merchan’s gag order, according to Fordham Law professor Adam Shlahet on Saturday.

A New York jury last month found the presumptive Republican 2024 presidential nominee guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records relating to a hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels by Trump’s then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, before the 2016 presidential election. The verdict makes Trump the first former president convicted of felony crimes.

Daniels alleged she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies. Trump has maintained his innocence and says the case, brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, is politically motivated. His legal team says it will fight the case, which will include an appeal, if necessary.

The former president now faces possible jail time, which will be determined at his July 11 sentencing by Merchan, who presided over the case, just days before the Republican National Convention, where he is expected to accept the party’s nomination.

Shlahet, director of the Brendan Moore Trial Advocacy Center at Fordham Law, said in an interview published by Salon on Saturday that he previously “thought that the judge sentencing him to incarceration was very unlikely,” but now, “I’m thinking it’s more likely.”

“When the person who’s going to be deciding your sentence is the judge, it’s also a really good idea to not antagonize the judge at every opportunity,” Shlahet said. “Every time he gets a microphone, he insults the judge and calls the judge crooked and calls the judge conflicted and shows no respect for the jury’s verdict. And that is not the way a defendant who wants probation should be acting.”

The law professor also noted Trump’s 10 separate violations of Merchan’s gag order. The former president was fined $10,000 in total for the violations.

The former president has repeatedly criticized Merchan as “highly conflicted” and “corrupt” on social media and in his public speeches. Shlahet told the outlet about Trump: “Even though this is a guy with no record and he’s an older gentleman, there are a ton of factors, aggravating factors that would lead a judge to give him some jail time,” including his conduct and rhetoric towards Judge Merchan.

Falsifying business records in New York state is a Class E felony, the least serious of the state’s five felony levels. There is no minimum prison sentence for a first-time felony offender like Trump, but there is the potential of yearslong sentencing. Fines, probation, and conditional discharge are all possibilities.

Legal experts, meanwhile, are divided on whether Trump is likely to serve jail time in this unprecedented situation.

Fordham Law School professor Cheryl Bader previously told Newsweek in a Thursday phone interview how difficult it is to know the likely sentence, saying, “Nobody knows except for perhaps Judge Merchan, and even he may not have made up his mind at this time.”

Unlike Shlahet, Bader believes “the odds are unlikely that he will serve” a jail sentence while noting that “it is possible the judge could sentence him to house arrest.” In addition to this being Trump’s first offense and its nonviolent nature, she also noted that his “advanced age” at 77 years old makes prison time unlikely.

Bader noted that whatever the former president’s sentence is, “it would likely be stayed while appeal is pending,” meaning that he will not have to serve his sentence immediately.

Former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan and MSNBC legal analyst Barbara McQuade told Newsweek in an email on Thursday that while there are several considerations in his favor, there are some against, such as his “character,” “lack of remorse, and his repeated violations of the gag order,” which to McQuade “show lack of respect for the law.”

McQuade noted that “regardless of whether he is sentenced to a term of imprisonment, I doubt he will begin serving it until well after the election.”

Trump and President Joe Biden are slated for their first presidential debate on June 27, with another scheduled in September. The presidential race remains very tight, with FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregator showing Trump leading Biden by 1.1 points on Saturday.

The U.S. Constitution does not prohibit a convicted candidate from running for president from jail. In an interview with BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg last Sunday, Alina Habba, one of Trump’s lawyer, said that “nothing would change” Trump running, even if he were in a jail cell.