Donald Trump Gets More Bad News From Fourth Post-Verdict Poll

Half of Americans believe former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in his criminal hush money trial was correct, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

In a case brought forward by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a New York jury on Thursday found Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records relating to a hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels by Trump’s then-lawyer Michael Cohen shortly before the 2016 presidential election. Daniels alleged she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies. Trump has maintained his innocence and says the case is politically motivated. His legal team says they will fight the case, which will include an appeal, if necessary.

The former president now faces possible jail time, which will be determined at his July 11 sentencing, just days before the Republican National Convention where he is expected to accept the GOP party’s nomination.

The ABC News/Ipsos poll surveyed 781 U.S. adults, was conducted between May 31 and June 1 and has a margin of error of 3.7 points. It found that nearly half, 49 percent, think Trump should end his 2024 presidential campaign after being convicted. The race between Trump and Biden is extremely close, with FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregator showing Trump leading Biden by 1.2 percentage points as of Sunday afternoon.

Trump is the first former president to be convicted of felony crimes, and according to the poll, a slight majority of Americans, 51 percent, believe he intentionally did something illegal. While the poll showed 50 percent believe Trump’s guilty verdict was correct, the response falls along party lines, with only 16 percent of Republicans believing the verdict was correct.

Meanwhile, three separate polls conducted since Trump’s guilty verdict also show similar findings with the ABC News/Ipsos poll.

A YouGov snap poll of 3,040 Americans conducted just hours after the verdict was announced revealed that 50 percent believe Trump was guilty, while 30 percent thought he was not. Another 19 percent were unsure. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

Broken down into party lines, 15 percent of Republicans think Trump is guilty while 64 percent do not, 48 percent of independents think Trump is guilty while 25 percent do not, and 86 percent of Democrats believe he is guilty while 5 percent do not. A total of 831 Republicans, 1,114 independents, and 1,113 Democrats were surveyed. The margin of error of the subgroups are unclear.

Morning Consult’s poll of 2,220 registered voters found 54 percent approve of the jury’s verdict while 39 percent disapprove. Across party lines, 18 percent of Republicans approve of the verdict while 74 percent disapprove, 52 percent of independents approve while 33 disapprove and 88 percent of Democrats approve while 8 percent disapprove. The poll, which was conducted on Friday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed 2,556 U.S. adults and was conducted between Thursday and Friday, found that 5 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of independents said they are much less likely to vote for Trump because of the jury’s ruling. Meanwhile, 30 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of independents said the verdict made them much more likely to vote for Trump. However, the majority of Republicans (55 percent), independents (58 percent), and Democrats (58 percent) said the verdict didn’t change their minds on whether or not to vote for the former president.

The subsample of Republicans was 828 U.S. adults (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent), independents was 708 (with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percent), and Democrats was 774 (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent).

Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign communications director, told Newsweek via email on Saturday, “President Trump has seen an outpouring support, which has led to polling increases and record-shattering fundraising numbers that include close to $53 million in just 24 hours, 30% of those who are new donors.”

He also mentioned a snap Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll taken after Thursday’s verdict, which found that Trump’s approval rating was up by 6 percentage points compared to those who disapproved.

A total of 22 percent of likely voters had a more positive view of Trump after his guilty verdict while 16 percent had a more negative view. Meanwhile, 32 percent of likely voters who already had a negative view of Trump had no change of opinion while 27 percent of likely voters who already had a positive view of Trump had no change. The poll surveyed 403 likely voters from Thursday to Friday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Trump and President Joe Biden will face off on June 27 in their first presidential debate of the year.