Donald Trump Flips Swing State in New Fox News Poll

Former President Donald Trump has retaken the lead from Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, according to a new Fox News poll.

Arizona is considered among at least seven battleground states that could decide a close presidential election in November. President Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to beat a Republican presidential candidate in Arizona since former President Bill Clinton in 1996.

A Fox News poll released on Thursday shows Trump with a lead of 3 percentage points over Harris among likely Arizona voters in both a head-to-head matchup and in a race that includes third-party candidates. Harris was leading Trump by 1 point in a version of the poll that was released last month.

Trump’s lead was facilitated by the poll finding several shifts in key demographics, including an 18-point Harris lead among Hispanic registered voters shrinking to 11 points and a lead among women voters dwindling from 14 points to just 8 points.

Perhaps most surprisingly, the poll found a massive 25-point shift in Trump’s favor among Arizona voters who are under 30 years old. Trump was leading registered voters in the demographic by 12 points in the new poll, while Harris was ahead by 13 points in the August edition.

The poll was conducted over the phone and online among 1,021 registered voters in Arizona from September 20 to September 24. It has a margin of error of 3 percent among registered voters and 3.5 percent among likely voters.

Newsweek reached out for comment to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email on Thursday night.

The same Fox News poll showed Trump-endorsed Republican Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake, a staunch supporter of the former president and his false claims of massive fraud in the 2020 election, losing to Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego by a wide margin.

Gallego, a U.S. congressman, was leading Lake in the poll by 14 points among registered voters and 13 points among likely voters. The poll was among several surveys that have shown the Democrat leading by double digits. Lake has dismissed the polls as “garbage.”

Trump’s lead over Harris in the new poll mirrors several other polls released over the past week that have shown him gaining ground in Arizona, although a poll released by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult on Thursday found that Harris had a 3-point lead over the former president.

The overall polling picture in Arizona suggests that the presidential race remains in a dead heat, with an average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight showing the former president leading the vice president by only 0.8 percent as of Thursday night—a result that is well within the margin of error for nearly any poll.