Donald Trump was leading in Orange County by more than 17,000 votes early Wednesday, a position that, if it holds, would hand him a victory that’s eluded him for years.
Voters in this historically GOP-dominated county rejected his first bid for the White House in 2016, selecting a Democrat — Hillary Clinton — for the highest office for the first time in 80 years. He met the same fate in 2020 with Joe Biden.
For decades, Orange County was a conservative stronghold, adjacent to its left-leaning neighbor, Los Angeles County. Orange County is the birthplace of the 37th president of the United States, Richard Nixon, and was represented in Congress for many years by President Reagan’s former speechwriter Dana Rohrabacher.
But voters’ rejection of Trump and the county’s gradual shift from deeply red to a more politically diverse region has fascinated pollsters and political scientists for years.
UCI School of Social Ecology Dean Jon Gould said the close presidential race further cements the county’s position as a bellwether “in terms of where America is and where it’s going.”
“This is not a sign that Orange County is suddenly a red county,” he said. “This is exactly what it means to be a purple county, and with a third of the votes still left to be counted, I would hardly be making pronouncements about what is truly going to come out of this race.”
In 2016, Clinton received roughly 100,000 more votes in Orange County than Trump. In 2020, Biden fared even better, besting Trump by more than 137,500 votes.
Early returns in downballot contests also reflect where Orange County stands politically, swaying alternately between red and blue.
Republican candidates are leading in five of the county’s nine assembly districts up for grabs this cycle. And Rep. Michelle Steel, a Republican, and her Democratic challenger, Derek Tran, remain locked in a tight race for the seat representing the 45th Congressional District — one of the most competitive House races in the country.
In the 47th Congressional District, which represents a swath of coastal Orange County, the race between Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Sen. Dave Min also remains too close to call.
