Democrats See 103 Percent Increase in Pennsylvania Voters Leaving the Party

Although Pennsylvania still has more registered Democrats than any other party, the number of voters leaving the party has greatly increased, with nearly twice as many as last year switching to other parties, including the GOP, according to state-released voting data.

Pennsylvania is a key battleground in this presidential election, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris vying for its crucial Electoral College votes. The Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes—more than any other swing state—could determine the outcome of the election.

Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, while President Joe Biden flipped it in 2020. The race in the state is expected to be decided by a few thousand votes, and both major party candidates have been repeatedly campaigning there.

Weekly updated data provided by Pennsylvania’s Department of State shows the party breakdown of registered voters in the state as of Monday: 3,958,835 Democrats, 3,646,110 Republicans, 1,085,677 unaffiliated and 346,211 with “other” affiliations.

The data reports a notable shift in party registrations, showing that Pennsylvania’s Democratic Party has experienced a 103 percent increase in members leaving the party this year, compared with last year.

In 2023, 19,321 Pennsylvania voters changed their registration from Democrat to “other,” and 36,341 switched from Democrat to Republican. Overall, 55,662 registered Democrats in the state left the party.

This year, the state-released data shows that 51,937 registered Democrats changed their affiliation to “other,” and 61,126 switched to Republican, for a total of 113,063 leaving the party.

Newsweek has reached out via email to the Pennsylvania Democratic Party for comment on Wednesday.

On the other hand, Republicans have seen a significant but smaller number of members leave the party, with 29,038 registered Republicans changing their affiliation—13,196 to “other” and 15,842 to Democrat—in 2023. This year, 48,702 Republicans switched parties, with 24,046 changing to “other” and 24,656 becoming Democrats, around a 67 percent increase in Republicans leaving the party.

Most Pennsylvania polls show a narrow margin between the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees, with leads fluctuating within the margin of error, making the state a toss-up.

A recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in the Keystone State found Harris leading the Republican nominee by 3 percentage points.

The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared with Trump’s 47 percent. However, Harris’ lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. In addition, the poll reported that 3 percent of respondents didn’t know whom they supported or refused to answer.

Meanwhile, an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters found Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point, with 49 percent of respondents backing him and 48 percent supporting Harris. The poll, conducted between October 5 and 8, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Harris’ clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three “blue wall” battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia while flipping Pennsylvania.

Aggregate polls, updated daily with new data, show an extremely tight race in the state. RealClearPolitics has Trump leading by 0.3 percent, 48.3 percent to Harris’ 48 percent. On the other hand, The Hill‘s aggregate shows the opposite, with Harris ahead by 0.3 percent, 48.6 percent to Trump’s 48.3 percent.

Other aggregates, such as those from FiveThirtyEight and The New York Times, show Harris with a larger lead, 0.7 percent and 3 percentage points, respectively.