College Football Win Totals: 3 Early Picks to Fall Short

We’re getting close to the college football season starting, and so it’s time to dive into some futures markets.

What is really interesting about this upcoming season is how different the entire college football landscape is going to look. We have Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC and the Big Ten adding Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA, making the conferences almost unrecognizable from what we saw last year.

With that in mind, here are three teams who we like fading heading into this season with some real value on them going under their projected win total. One quick note is that this only includes regular season games, so bowls, conference championships and the playoffs do not count.

If you are looking for three teams to go over their win totals, check out our article here.

Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten): Under 8.5 Wins

Let’s start with the low-hanging fruit here and take the defending National Champs to go under their projected win total of 8.5. 8.5 is admittedly low, so the books are pricing this win total with the thought in mind they’re going to take a step back.

But with how much has changed from last year’s team, along with the Big Ten becoming a much better conference, the under is the way to go here. You could play it safe and go with the under 9 at -135 odds, but taking the value play at +122 to go under 8.5 is the better bet.

Not only do the Wolverines have to replace head coach Jim Harbaugh, who left for the NFL, but they also have to replace defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and a program-record 13 players that were taken in the 2024 NFL draft. The 2023 offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore is taking over as head coach, and he did fill in well during Harbaugh’s suspension last year, but this is going to be a different animal.

The most important replacement from last year’s team is going to be replacing quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who went in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. While McCarthy did not have to do much with the ball thanks to Michigans ground-and-pound run-heavy approach on offense, he was still capable of making all the throws on the field and he consistently came up with plays when needed. In the spring Michigan had a five-man QB battle, and that will continue as we head into fall camp. NFL coaches love to say that if you have two QBs you actually have none, so it is hard to imagine having five QBs is a good spot to be in.

They also have to replace their best running back, Blake Corum, and their top six offensive lineman from last year as well. Michigan does project to have a solid defense, but with the fourth-hardest strength of schedule according to College Football Preview, it is tough to see Michigan getting to nine wins this season after a long run of dominance in the Big Ten.

Washington Huskies (Big Ten): Under 6.5 Wins

For our second play, let’s go with the second-lowest hanging fruit and take the National Championship runner-up, the Washington Huskies, to go under 6.5 wins. This is another win total that is being reflected with all the change that happened from last years team, but another situation where the under is the play. Being in the Big Ten is a gauntlet for Michigan as mentioned previously, and it’s now going to be a gauntlet for Washington, who has the seventh-hardest schedule in all of college football.

Along with Michigan, Washington also had a wide exodus of talent, also both from the coaching and player department. Head coach Kalen Debour left to take over Alabama, replacing Nick Saban, while highly regarded offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb left to become the Seattle Seahawks OC. Jedd Fisch is now the coach at Washington, coming over from Arizona where he did a good job, but he has his work cut out for him for the 2024 season.

The Huskies will need to replace all five starters along the offensive line from last year, along with QB and 2024 first round pick Michael Penix Jr., and their top three wide receivers in Rome Adunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk. They did do a good job replacing some of the skill positions, most notably QB Will Rogers from Mississippi State, but the offensive line is going to be trouble for the team and that is something that is hard to scheme away.

On defense, the Huskies hired Steve Belichick — yes that is correct, they hired Bill Belichick’s son — who will also have his work cut out for him. The Huskies lost all four 2023 starters on the defensive line to the NFL draft, and the 2023 defense was not anything to write home about to begin with. They will be strong at the linebacker position, but they will struggle in the secondary.

Clemson Tigers (ACC): Under 9.5 Wins

This is another situation where there is a slight disagreement among the books, with some pricing the Clemson win total at 9.5 and others pricing it at 9. Depending on your ability to stomach -160 odds, this is a situation where playing it safer makes sense and taking the under 9.5. While the Clemson schedule is not nearly as hard as Michigan or Washington, they are still projected for only 8.5 wins according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

After a dominant run in which Clemson had DeShaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, they have been unable to replicate that level of success since Lawrence left. It also appears as though college football has passed head coach Dabo Sweeney by. His stubborn refusal to adapt to the new landscape of the NCAAF has left his teams devoid of talent. He has not adopted his approach to include transfers, which means on a yearly basis Clemson is losing a chance at adding real talent via the transfer portal.

For each of the past three years Clemson has entered the season in the top 10, but failed to finish in the top 10 at any point during that span, topping out at 13.

Cade Klubnik will enter his second season as the starting quarterback for Clemson, and he will need to be significantly better than he was last year if Clemson wants to make any noise. He ended the season as the 80th-ranked QB according to QBR, as the Tigers ended with the 50th-ranked offense in total yards.

The Clemson offense will need to be better than it was last year, as the skill position players and offensive line all disappointed compared to pre-season expectations. The Clemson defense was good and projects to be a good unit again in 2024, but they led the nation in forced turnovers, which is generally a stat that is tough to repeat year-over-year. So, some regression on that end is to be expected.

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