This was a theme that started over the back half of last season, as Rice and Kelce occupy similar parts of the field, so Rice’s increased production came at the expense of Kelce.
With Rice out for the season, the guess here is that we are going to see some vintage Kelce performances in the weeks to come.
The 49ers are admittedly not a defense we would traditionally target tight ends against, but Kelce and Mahomes are in a different league. The last two times Kelce and the Chiefs have played the 49ers, here are Kelce’s stats:
Six receptions for 98 yards (2022 season)
Nine receptions for 93 yards (2024 Super Bowl)
Look for Kelce to have another big game on Sunday.
Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions (+140): 0.50 Units
Brandon Aiyuk u59.5 Rec. Yards (-110) Bet365
For the past two seasons now, the Chiefs have been among the best defenses in the NFL at stopping the opposing team’s No. 1 receiver.
Last year, it was L’Jarius Sneed who was capable of shutting down these top-flight receivers, and this year it has been All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie carrying this torch.
According to DVOA, the Chiefs are the fourth-best defense against No.1 WRs this season, and they have allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to these No. 1 receivers (32.6 rec. yards per game).
Here is how some of league’s best receivers have done against the Chiefs this year, starting from Week 1:
Ravens WR Zay Flowers: Six receptions for 37 yards
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase: Four receptions for 35 yards
Saints WR Chris Olave: Two receptions for 10 yards
Kansas City will allow some secondary receivers to have decent games, but they do not give up a lot to wide receivers in general. Overall, the Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards per game to receivers.
The beauty of the 49ers offense is they have plenty of weapons to use, so they will not need to force the ball to Aiyuk if the opportunities are not there. This has also been a slow start to the year for Aiyuk in general.
He has only gone over this receiving total once this year, when he had 147 receiving yards against the Cardinals in Week 5. He has not gone over 50 yards in any of the other five games for the 49ers this season.
Look for other players besides Aiyuk to have success for the 49ers in this one.
Brandon Aiyuk under 59.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 Unit
George Kittle o48.5 Rec. Yards (-120) Bet365
Remember when we just talked about how little the Chiefs give up to wide receivers? Well, the opposite is true of tight ends. Essentially, the Chiefs are a tight end pass funnel on defense.
While they have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to WRs, they have allowed the most targets, receptions and yards to tight ends in the entire NFL.
They have allowed some monster performances to tight ends, including:
Ravens TE Isaiah Likely: Nine receptions for 111 yards
Bengals TE Mike Gesicki: Seven receptions for 91 yards
Chiefs TE Kyle Pitts: two receptions for 59 receiving yards
Saints TE Juwan Johnson: Five receptions for 31 yards
Those last two performances might not seem like huge games in the grand scheme of things, but keep in mind that both Pitts and Johnson went over their receiving yards over/under, with Johnson having a receptions o/u of 1.5.
Kittle has had a somewhat under-discussed performance this season, as he has gone over this number in three of five games, ane he has hit at least 40 yards in every single game this season.
With how barren the tight end landscape has been this season, that is a solid floor, and the success other TEs have had against K.C. shows that there is also a high ceiling for Kittle in this game.
George Kittle over 48.5 receiving yards (-120): 1 Unit
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