Donald Trump Could Be Barred From Leaving White House: Ex-Prosecutor

Kenneth McCallion, former assistant prosecutor for the U.S. Department of Justice and New York State Attorney General’s Office, said recently convicted Donald Trump might be “under house arrest in the White House” if he wins the presidency.

McCallion’s comments came after a New York jury found Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records relating to a hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels by Trump’s then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, before the 2016 presidential election. The verdict, making Trump the first former president convicted of felony crimes, was announced last Thursday.

Daniels alleged she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies. Trump has maintained his innocence and says the case, brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, is politically motivated. His legal team says it will fight the case, which will include an appeal, if necessary.

The former president now faces possible jail time, which will be determined at his July 11 sentencing, just days before the Republican National Convention, where he is expected to accept the party’s nomination. Legal experts are divided on whether he is likely to serve time.

Trump and President Joe Biden are slated for a rematch this November, with debates set for June 27 and September 10. Trump’s conviction comes at a time when the polls are very tight, with FiveThirtyEight’s national aggregator poll placing Trump 1.6 points ahead on Thursday.

In an interview published Thursday by Salon, McCallion, who specializes in racketeering and complex litigation, called the jury’s verdict “largely bullet-proof.” He said Trump’s anticipated appeal will struggle because “there are just no trial errors that would require reversal and a setting aside of the jury verdict.”

McCallion said that to avoid jail time, Trump, given this is his first offense, would have to show “remorse” and seek “the mercy of the court.” However, McCallion believes it is “quite likely that Donald Trump is going to be sentenced to a prison term. Trump will have an appeal, and that process will go on for a few months. But again, Trump’s appeal is likely going to fail.

“Donald Trump’s only hope is to be elected president again. That is really the only way for him to escape prison. Trump cannot commute his own state sentence, but he is going to try his best to convince the public that he is a political martyr who is being unfairly persecuted and being nailed to the cross for his political beliefs.”

Presidents can only commute federal criminal convictions, not state ones, which is what Trump faces.

McCallion said: “Perhaps Trump will be under house arrest in the White House, something heretofore unimaginable.”

Newsweek reached out to McCallion for additional comment via email on Thursday.

Fordham Law School professor Cheryl Bader told Newsweek in a phone interview that “logistically it would be a constitutional crisis if the president of the United States were not able to travel outside of the White House. I think accommodations would be made” if that were the situation.

She noted how difficult it is to know the likely sentence.

“Nobody knows except for perhaps Judge [Juan] Merchan, and even he may not have made up his mind at this time,” Bader said

Contrary to McCallion’s view, Bader believes “the odds are unlikely that he will serve” a jail sentence while noting that “it is possible the judge could sentence him to house arrest. In addition to this being Trump’s first offense and its nonviolent nature, she also noted that his “advanced age” (77) makes prison time unlikely.

Bader noted that whatever the former president’s sentence is, “it would likely be stayed while appeal is pending,” meaning that he will not have to serve his sentence immediately.

In a similar vein, former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan and MSNBC legal analyst Barbara McQuade told Newsweek in an email Thursday: “It is difficult to predict the likelihood of a prison sentence.”

She noted that there are several considerations in his favor, like his “lack of prior criminal history and the nonviolent nature of his offense,” and some against, including his “character,” “lack of remorse, and his repeated violations of the gag order,” which to McQuade “show lack of respect for the law.”

McQuade noted that “regardless of whether he is sentenced to a term of imprisonment, I doubt he will begin serving it until well after the election.”

“The judge has the ability to stay the imposition of sentence until after appeals have run,” McQuade said. “It seems likely that that will happen in this case, and that those appeals will not run for well over a year. I think that if Trump is elected, then his sentence will be held in abeyance until he leaves office.”

Greg Germain, a lawyer and law professor at Syracuse University in New York, previously told Newsweek that putting Trump in prison would lead to many legal challenges.

“I don’t think Trump will be given a prison sentence, because that would create a constitutional crisis and a slew of appeals and habeas corpus challenges, and a mess for the judicial system in trying to deal with prisoner Trump,” he said.

“The smart thing will be to give him probation or stay his sentence pending appeal. A decision by Judge Merchan to impose a prison sentence would appear biased.”

Michael Dimino, a law professor at Widener University in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, previously told Newsweek that Trump’s “imprisonment is extremely unlikely,” adding that, “it would cause a constitutional crisis.”

Cyrus Vance Jr., a former Manhattan district attorney, said this month on NBC’s Meet the Press that he believes a jail sentence for the former president is unlikely.

“I would be surprised that he would be sentenced to any imprisonment,” he said.