Why Benjamin Netanyahu May Defy Joe Biden—Again

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet are poised to retaliate against Iran, British Foreign Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday, despite U.S. appeals for restraint in an escalating Middle East crisis in which the American military has already been deeply involved.

“I thank our friends for their support in defense of Israel and I say this—support in both words and deeds,” Netanyahu said after meetings with Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Israel.

“They also have all kinds of suggestions and advice, which I appreciate; however, I would also like to clarify—we will make our decisions ourselves. The state of Israel will do whatever is necessary to defend itself.”

U.S. officials have publicly said that Israel will not have American support for a counterstrike against Iran, a message also delivered directly to Netanyahu by President Joe Biden. “Take the win,” the president reportedly told the Israeli leader.

Give Peace a Chance

Failure to respond may cost Netanyahu politically, especially with Iran touting victory and declaring that the “matter can be deemed concluded.” The divisive prime minister is already polling poorly—even before his government’s failure to stop the October 7 attack—and is beset by demands for fresh elections.

“Netanyahu may feel that he has little choice but to escalate with Iran in order to maintain public support, keep his war coalition together and, ultimately, ensure his own political survival,” Urban Coningham of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank in London wrote this week.

Israel’s war cabinet is still mulling how and when to respond to Iran’s weekend drone and missile bombardment, which was almost entirely defeated by combined Israeli and allied—including American—defenses. More than half of the projectiles intercepted were downed by U.S. jets and missiles, according to The Intercept.

An Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson declined a Newsweek request for comment on how many munitions were downed by each nation involved in the defensive effort.

A major response may deepen fissures in U.S.-Israeli ties exposed by the punishing offensive on the Gaza Strip. In the six months since October 7, Netanyahu has repeatedly rebuffed American requests to rein in civilian casualties, facilitate more aid for Palestinians, and curtail Israeli settlements—considered illegal under international law—in the occupied West Bank.

Despite all its criticism—largely dismissed by Palestinians and their advocates as performative—the Biden administration will not end vital military support to Israel, stressing the “ironclad” nature of continued American backing for its long-time ally. The allied role in defeating Iran’s unprecedented attack has underscored the value of continued cooperation.

“I think that Western countries have shown their support for Israel’s right to defend itself against any attack,” Lior Haiat, Israel’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told Newsweek shortly after the Iranian broadside. “The Iranian attack shows the real face of the terror regime of Iran.”

Israel’s leadership could build on this collaboration or break from it. “Taking another cut at Tehran and risking the region’s dwindled stability in the process could squander that opportunity,” the International Crisis Group think tank wrote this week.

“Conversely, Iranian decision-makers, having already made one major gamble, should not double down if their efforts to deter Israel fail to forestall a limited response.”

How Will Israel Respond?

Israel has a wide range of options. A relatively low-risk option would be to expand its operations against Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Lebanon, which have killed many Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanese Hezbollah personnel. Indeed, Iran’s own attack was a retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a senior IRGC commander in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month.

Iran’s attack was the first direct strike from its own territory on Israel in its history. Israeli leaders may feel the need to respond directly on Iranian soil. Past Israeli actions inside the country have been covert in nature, whether cyberattacks against Tehran’s nuclear program or assassinations of nuclear researchers.

Retaliation may see such operations revived or may go further by openly targeting specific military and IRGC sites inside Iran linked to the weekend’s bombardment.

Prominent individual targets may also be on the Israeli hit list. One example is an Iranian intelligence vessel which is suspected of supporting recent Houthi strikes against shipping in the Red Sea. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the ship has returned to port as Tehran awaits potential retaliation.

Netanyahu may also look to leverage the standoff to Israel’s benefit in Gaza, where IDF operations continue despite the withdrawal of most units from the Strip and ongoing efforts to reach a new ceasefire deal with Hamas.

“For Benjamin Netanyahu, this is a net win,” Emile Hokayem, from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, of Israel’s defeat of Iran’s bombardment.

“The Iranian attack has galvanized Western support after weeks of mounting criticism of the brutal campaign in Gaza. The concern now is that Israel’s sense it has prevailed in this round may make it less rather than more risk averse. It is possible that Netanyahu will tell Washington: ‘If you don’t let us go after Iran, let us invade Rafah, the southern Gaza city,'” Hokayem wrote.

Any Israeli attack on Iran risks a larger conflagration, or a “new normal” of major tit-for-tat strikes between the two states, with the constant danger of full-scale war.

“If Israel responds by striking Iranian territory, the situation could spiral out of control,” Ali Vaez—the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group—wrote this week. “The two states may find themselves in sustained, direct hostilities that further destabilize an already dangerous region. Such a conflict could quickly spread.”