In that stretch, they have allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game. They also have the fourth-highest stuff rate and have allowed the sixth-fewest missed tackles.
That last stat is an especially important one against Kenneth Walker, whose superpower is his tackle-breaking ability. The Seahawks offensive line is not the type to generate a lot of push in the running game, as evidenced by their third-lowest adjusted rushing yards before contact.
But the Seahawks are second in forced-missed-tackle rate, which is mostly thanks to Kenneth Walker.
So, in a matchup against a Bills team that does not miss a lot of tackles, the guess here is that Walker is going to get bottled up in the ground game when the Seahawks do run, and it is worth noting that they are not a run-heavy team.
The Seahawks pass at the highest frequency in the entire NFL, with a 69.2 percent pass rate. This partly because of their issues in the running game, but the Seahawks have generally been a pass-happy team with Geno Smith as their QB.
In neutral game scripts (score within seven points either way), the Seahawks still pass at the second-highest frequency, with a 66.1 pass rate. The only team ahead of them passes at a 66.3 rate, so it is a negligible difference.
The under for Walker is the play here.
Kenneth Walker under 65.5 rushing yards (-110): 1 Unit
James Cook 65+ Rush. Yards (+115) Fanatics
On the other side of the field, Bills RB James Cook has a great matchup to hit his rushing prop for us.
For starters, despite having a superstar QB in Josh Allen, the Bills have generally been a run-friendly team. They run the ball at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL, with the ninth-highest neutral rush rate as well.
This shift started late last season, and it has continued this year. As a result, James Cook has had a good season.
He has rushed for at least 65 yards in three of five games, and two of the games he went under were tough matchups where you would not have wanted to target him, against the Ravens and the Titans.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, have a porous rush defense. They have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (146.1), on the fifth-worst yards per carry.
Looking even deeper, they have allowed the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest adjusted rushing yards before contact. Being top seven in both yards before AND yards after contact is generally not a good sign for a team’s rushing defense.
Overall, seven different RBs this year have hit the 65-yard mark against the Seahawks (and keep in mind they have only played in seven games). Here are all the RBs who have had success against Seattle:
Tyrone Tracy Jr: 128 yards on 18 carries, 7.2 YPC
Bijan Robinson: 103 yards on 21 carries, 4.9 YPC
Isaac Guerendo: 99 yards on 10 carries, 9.9 YPC
Antonio Gibson: 96 yards on 11 carries, 8.7 YPC
Jahmyr Gibbs: 78 yards on 14 carries, 5.6 YPC
Jordan Mason: 73 yards on 9 carries, 8.1 YPC
The list above shows that twice this year, teams have had two separate running backs hit 65 yards in the same game.
Look for Cook to go off on Sunday.
James Cook 65+ rushing yards (+115): 1 Unit
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
Source link
About the Author
Matt Modi
This author has not added a biography. Meanwhile Matt Modi has contributed 24 posts.
Click here
to view them.
