Could Michelle Obama Replace Joe Biden? Experts Weigh In

It’s unlikely that Michelle Obama will replace Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for the presidential election, according to experts.

Biden, the incumbent president, has been hit with criticism and calls for him to end his reelection bid following a poor performance in the first 2024 presidential debate in Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday.

During the debate, he gave a series of incoherent and confusing responses and appeared to trail off and not finish his sentences at times. This led to his odds of victory slumping, according to bookmakers and sparked “panic” within the Democratic Party, according to CNN chief national correspondent John King.

Seth Schuster, a Biden campaign spokesperson, told Newsweek after the debate that Biden is “not dropping out.”

However if he does, Obama, the former first lady and the wife of former President Barack Obama, has been floated as a contender to replace him, despite her repeatedly saying she has no intention to run.

Speaking to Newsweek, on Tuesday, Crystal Carson, Michelle Obama’s director of communications, reiterated a statement the former first lady’s office made in March that said: “As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president.”

Experts agreed that it was unlikely Obama would run.

Todd Landman, a professor of political science at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., called the scenario “highly unlikely.”

“For personal and procedural reasons, I think it is highly unlikely that Michelle Obama would replace President Biden,” he told Newsweek.

“She has stated on numerous occasions that she does not want to be considered for a wide range of personal reasons. Procedurally, Biden would either need to resign (but this would make Kamala Harris the President for the rest of the administration’s tenure and likely make her the candidate, not Michelle Obama), or he would need to declare that he is ending his campaign and release his delegates acquired through the primary process, where it would be the job of the delegates to throw their support to a new candidate, one of whom could be Michelle Obama. In the latter scenario, Michelle Obama would have to compete against other candidates.”

Even before the debate, Biden was under pressure. Aged 81, he is the oldest person ever to be president and his tenure has long been marred by claims he lacks the mental fitness for the position. Detractors have pointed to his verbal gaffes and physical missteps, such as stumbling on the steps of Air Force One as evidence for his incapability.

A New York Times poll published in March found that 61 percent of his 2020 voters now think he is “just too old” for another term.

Meanwhile, the odds on Obama winning the 2024 election surged following the debate.

Leading bookmakers Bet 365, Sky Bet and William Hill were offering odds of 16/1 (5.9 percent), 16/1 (5.9 percent), and 20/1 (4.8 percent), respectively, immediately before the June 27 debate, according to data compiled by the Oddschecker website. As of 8 a.m. ET on Tuesday, these had changed to 12/1 (7.7 percent) for Bet 365, 14/1 (6.7 percent) for Sky Bet, and 10/1 (9.1 percent) for William Hill.

Nevertheless, Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., agreed that Obama replacing Biden was “highly unlikely” as she is a “non-politician.”

“The chances of Michelle Obama replacing Joe Biden on the Democrat ticket are somewhere between hugely unlikely and a plain, flat zero,” he told Newsweek.

“While Donald Trump has shown that one doesn’t have to be a politician to become president, Michelle Obama is a non-politician who has experienced eight years of the White House from the inside. Why would she ever want to go back into that pressure cooker? Being at the president’s side as FLOTUS is a million miles away from being POTUS. While Mrs Obama has taken strong political positions on everything from childhood obesity to LGBTQ+ rights, she has never run for political office herself. And while she has a tremendous profile across the country, would she ever be able to rid voters of that to elect her would simply be to deliver Barack Obama 3.0. She’s best-off backing Joe Biden or whoever the Democrat candidate turns out to be from the outside – and she knows it.”

Meanwhile, Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, told Newsweek he took Obama’s assertion she has no intention to run seriously.

“She has steadfastly expressed support for both President Biden and VP Harris, and I suspect she remains committed to both of them.”

The Democratic Convention starts August 19, where Biden is expected to be confirmed as the Democratic nominee.

He will face Donald Trump on November 5.