We were finally dealt a losing weekend this season thanks to Baylor (+2) being unable to stop Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders’ last-second Hail Mary heave. It’s one of those losses that makes you stare at the ceiling for a half hour.
Clearly, I’m over it.
Anyway — I’ve got three college football bets and three NFL plays this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (10-7, +2.3 units)
Illinois @ Penn State (-17.5, O/U 48)
This one might feel like stealing if you’re on the Illini side, but be careful. Why is the line so large against an undefeated team? Well, because Penn State’s power rating is through the roof. Yes, the Nittany Lions have played some bad teams, but they’ve destroyed them. And Illinois does not have the offensive ammo to play catch up. Don’t be surprised if this is 34-13.
PICK: Penn State (-17.5) to win by more than 17.5 points
North Carolina @ Duke (-2.5, O/U 56)
I’m going back to the well on the Tar Heels. You hate it, I know. Mack Brown’s squad gave up 70 last week after a very weird first half that saw James Madison force a fumble, block a punt for a touchdown and recover an onside kick. It got away real early — it happens. Now, North Carolina faces a rebuilding Duke team that I don’t think should be favored. Take the small number.
PICK: North Carolina (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright
Colorado @ UCF (-14, O/U 62)
Sharps came in real early and blasted UCF from -11 all the way out to -14.5. You certainly respect that move, although it was impossible not to notice the resistance on Colorado at +14.5 and +14. The Buffs will struggle in conference play — a la last year — but they should be able to exploit a very weak Knights’ pass defense. Also, please make sure you take the full 14 and not 13.5.
PICK: Colorado (+14) to lose by fewer than 14 points, or win outright
Colorado at UCF: CFB Week 5 Super Six
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (-3, O/U 41)
The Rams emptied the kitchen sink last Sunday to rally back and beat the battered and bruised San Francisco 49ers. Give ‘em credit, they never quit. But now they have to travel to Chicago and face a top five Bears defense without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, not to mention a banged-up offensive line. Sean McVay is awesome, but the Bears are a better football team.
Most people are already writing off the Jags, which I understand. Everybody wrote off the Panthers last week, and they were up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. NFL gonna NFL, am I right? I went against Houston last week in Minnesota, and I’m willing to do it again in a divisional game. We’ll know very early if Jacksonville is mailing it in, but I think it’s worth finding out.
PICK: Jaguars (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright
Nick’s Picks: Rams (+3) upset Bears, Falcons (-2.5) bounce back in Week 4
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-3.5, O/U 46.5)
Detroit is a perfect 3-0 to the Under this season, which I’m not sure anybody saw coming. That’s all fine and dandy. However, this is now the lowest Lions total of the entire season. Their totals closed in the low 50s the last three games, so this is a decent chance to buy a numerical dip. Seattle’s two best defensive linemen — Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II — did not practice Thursday and if they can’t go, Detroit will do whatever it wants on offense.
PICK: Over 46.5 points scored by both teams combined
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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